Bubba’s back after a month away — and he came in with positions on.
Here’s what we got into:
He’s still short ES from 7750. That was my bull/bear line in the sand at 7752 — and he never covered. He walks through where he’s looking to take it off, plus the Dow short from 54,000 and the cover number he’s closing in on.
Crude at three standard deviations. Everybody emailed him panicking about the Venezuela headlines. His answer: the market already knew. He’s selling more into it — and explains why that’s process, not opinion.
The pretzel bet. Bubba’s got money (well, pretzels) on the 10-year hitting 5% by the end of September. We get into why he thinks rates head higher from here and what that eventually means for equities.
VIX in the 13-14 handle. My read on why these low prints keep producing reactionary pops, and Bubba’s take: this is the time to be long volatility. He’ll bet anyone we see 22-24 before year end.
Why this is the slowest week of the year. The A, B, C and D teams at the big banks — and which ones are actually at the desk right now. Plus what happens Friday at 10am after the jobs number.
The P&L trap. A trader in my room left 20 points on the table today because she was trying to win back yesterday’s loss. Bubba’s floor version: the guys praying to get back to even. Same disease, forty years apart.
The automated hedging program. Bubba explains the one-by-two back ratio system he built that keeps him 100% invested and rolls the hedge every 3% move — the 30,000-foot view of one of his best inventions.
Rip-your-face-off rallies. Why the biggest rallies happen in bear markets, and what it looked like on the floor when everybody was short and the first guy started buying.
I closed it out with my two buy spots below and the level where this whole thing gets sucked back into that 10-week balance area — and what that means if it happens.
Hit play.
Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!
Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.
