Bubba’s back — and this time we didn’t give him an agenda. Just me, Rob Curry, and Todd “Bubba” Horwitz shooting the breeze about what’s actually happening in these markets right now.
No script. No forced structure. Just three traders talking shop.
Here’s a taste of what we got into:
The “face ripper” rally — The S&P is up 12% in two weeks on pathetically thin volume. Bubba’s take: this is a retail rally, and the big houses are sitting on the sidelines waiting to hand out a good whack.
Bubba’s Daily Trade Finder — How he’s running 19 wins to 3 losses selling credit spreads on SPY, QQQ, IWM, and the big-name weeklies. Why he never sells naked premium and always plays the clock.
Expected move math traders actually miss — How to use the at-the-money straddle times 1.07 (Black-Scholes) to know exactly how much a stock is priced to move in any expiration. Simple math, huge edge.
Why ES options have lower IV than SPX or SPY — Bubba’s answer from a former market maker’s perspective, and why futures options can sometimes give you a better deal than the cash-settled contracts.
Emergent Edge — Rob and I break down our automated strategy, the 800,000 lines of code he wrote while chained to his desk through Christmas, and why our back-testing engine does things that TradingView, NinjaTrader, and TradeStation simply can’t.
Thin volume, fat tails, and what comes next — Is the PPT keeping this thing propped up? Shiller CAPE at 40-plus. Government interest coverage problems. Is a 40-60% haircut really on the table? Bubba’s been through ‘87, 2001, and 2008 — his read matters.
Gold running with the market — The correlation has flipped. We unpack why, where gold could go next (Bubba says $6,000), and why his mom’s jewelry store is taking a beating on the retail side.
Floor war stories — Naked OEX calls that blew a guy out at expiration, ripping through stops as a market maker, and trading through the ‘87 crash.
The real takeaway — Your opinion doesn’t pay the bills. Trade the chart. It’s okay not to trade. In an all-time-high price discovery market, process and patience are what separate the pros from the amateurs.
Hit play. Turn the volume up. Enjoy the ride.
Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!
Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.
