Hello Team,
Today is Sunday, March 1st, and as we enter a new month, we leave February in the dust—a month we absolutely conquered. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of the trade plans and absolutely slayed it.
We got some intense geopolitical news over the weekend. The United States and Israel bombed Iran, taking out the supreme leader and 40 of his guys, sparking retaliatory actions. While this doesn’t directly shift our economic data, it creates massive headline risk. We gapped down about 50 points right at the open tonight, and we are officially back in the trenches of this massive balance zone.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: Geopolitical conflict (US/Israel vs. Iran). Expect Oil to gap up. Headline risk is extremely elevated.
Volume: Expect highly erratic participation as the market digests the weekend conflict and positions for a new month.
Range: We gapped down roughly 50 points at the Sunday open, sucking us back into the lower end of our 6-week range.
Gamma: We remain in a volatile regime. We are dead smack in the middle of a massive distribution block, meaning we should expect sharp volatility in both directions.
Trend: Downside bias on ES. We have not gained on the Weekly, Daily, or 4-Hour timeframes. SPX is still technically pointing up as of Friday, creating a mixed, highly difficult tape, but as I’ve been preaching for weeks My bias is still overall tot he downside.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Sideways Distribution
We have been balancing back and forth for six weeks, essentially sitting in the exact same spot since January. We are accomplishing nothing but drifting. One of two things is happening: we are either balancing to accept value for a push higher, or we are in a distribution model getting ready to come lower.
I am leaning to the downside. Midterms are coming up, and historically we have a 70% chance of an 18% pullback. We are up 35-40% since last April. The market is overextended, the AI hype is showing cracks, and we need to cool down. My edge is in the edges, and right now, we are stuck in the middle. Patience is your best friend right now.
WK TPO = MASSIVE OVERLAPPING WEEKLY BALANCE AREA
📊 SPX Analysis: The True Guide
SPX is giving us a slightly different vibe than ES, technically holding its structural support.
The Midpoint Pivot: 6881.00 (Daily). This is the big Above/Below spot. Above it, we have momentum to push into the 6914.00 - 6916.00 gap area.
Downside Trap: Everything lower is tested, except the 6803.00 4-Hour leg. I don’t love this leg. If it plays, we want to see a reclaim of 6819.00 and ultimately 6883.00 for a rotation higher.
Actionable Setup (Short): If we push above 6914.00, look for the untested 6936.00 to play, get back below 6914.00, and dump it. That is how a pro trades a false breakout.
🚨 VIX Analysis: The 19.95 Midpoint Pivot
VIX pumped hard on the geopolitical news but was capped by our 21.74 Daily on Friday, drifting back down to close at 18.58. We are still stuck in a massive range making higher lows but lower highs.
The Barometer: 19.62 - 19.95 (Weekly). This is our midpoint pivot.
The Breakout Danger: Above 19.95, we look at the 20.78 Weekly. If we break and hold above the massive 21.74 Daily, it will flush the ES violently.
The Relief Pullback: Below 19.62, we drift back into the highly tested 18.58 - 18.63 area. If they push below this, we will see the indices start to grind back up.
🎯 Detailed Actionable Trade Plan (ES Futures)
With the Sunday gap down, we have officially created new overhead resistance. We have zero untested daily levels below us, so we must rely on liquidity sweeps for longs.
🔴 Key Resistance Zones & Setups
The Gap Resistance Zone: 6835.00 - 6857.00
Levels: 6835.00 (Tested Daily) and 6857.00 (Massive Monthly).
Context: With the 50-point gap down, 6835.00 and the 6857.00 Monthly are now fierce overhead resistance. We must get back above these to even attempt a rally.
Actionable Setup: Look to use these as short entries if price pops up and rejects.
The Middle Barometer: 6883.00
Levels: 6883.00 (Untested Weekly / Prev Weekly POC).
Context: This is the dead center of the chop. Downside momentum is heavy below this.
The Momentum Shift: 6901.50 - 6908.75
Levels: 6901.50 (4-Hour), 6903.00 (Weekly Momentum Shift), 6908.75 (Prev Weekly VAH).
Context: This is the absolute line in the sand. If we break out above 6908.75, we are going higher. If we stay below 6903.00, we continue lower.
The Upper Distribution: 6928.00 - 6945.00
Levels: 6928.00 (Big Daily), 6943.50 (Untested Weekly), 6945.00 (Monthly VAH). Higher up we have 6951.00 (4-Hour) and 6961.00 (Daily).
Actionable Setup: Short Setup: If price pushes above 6928.00, look for the 6943.50 Weekly to play. Wait for price to get back below 6928.00 before initiating the short.
🔵 Key Support Zones & Setups
The Value Area Base: 6846.00
Levels: 6846.00 (Prev Weekly VAL).
Context: We are hovering right around this area after the gap down. Below 6846.00, we open the trap door for lower prices.
The Liquidity Sweep: 6788.00 - 6794.00
Levels: 6794.00 (Daily) and 6788.00 (Weekly).
Actionable Setup: Sweep Setup: Look for a sweep underneath 6790.00, then a confident reclaim of 6788.00 and 6794.00 for a pop higher into resistance.
The Deep Squeeze: 6750.00 - 6765.00
Levels: 6765.00 (Daily) and 6761.00 (Weekly).
Context: Played beautifully in the overnight session previously and I believe it could play again in the cash session on first touch.
Actionable Setup: Sweep Setup: Let price sweep the 6750.00 low. Reclaim 6761.00 and the 6765.00 Daily for a massive squeeze long. Take profits at 6788.00 and 6794.00.
📌 Cheat Sheet – Key Levels Recap
ES 4HR FULL OVERLAY:
🧠 Final Thoughts
This is some of the most difficult trading you will encounter. We have been stuck in a 6-week distribution chop, accomplishing nothing, and now we are digesting serious geopolitical headline risk. My bias remains to the downside, but my process demands patience.
Because we have zero untested support below us, you cannot blindly buy dips. You must wait for the false breakdowns (sweeps) under 6790.00 or 6750.00 to trap the shorts before getting long. Know your momentum shifts at 6903.00 and 6857.00, let the edges come to you, and don’t force trades in the middle of the chop.
Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!
Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.
