Good morning everyone, and happy Memorial Day. Enjoy your day off — today is a great day to spend time with family and go touch some grass. We are getting into the Weekend Review today, but first a quick framing note that defines this entire plan: today is a holiday, the market is closed, and everything printing right now is futures-only Globex action. There are some weekend headlines that the Iranian war may be close to an end — even though Trump announced on social media that is not the case — and the market seems to think otherwise, popping us up 70 points at the time of this recording as we surf all-time highs on a day the cash market is not even open.
Here is the important part for those of you who have traded with me for a while: I do not count any of the structure that takes place on a holiday. For me this is all hogwash. The only thing I am taking away from today is that a new all-time high was made in Globex, which gives us a clear upside target for when we come into the cash session. Everything else, I am removing from my mind as I chart. There is a general rule that holiday trading gets largely retraced when we return to the regular session, so I do not think this pop is sustainable — it is a news-driven headline push, and we will go from there. So as we walk these levels, understand that I am ignoring today’s price action entirely except for the new high it printed.
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A Note on This Week’s Market:
News: Weekend headlines suggest the Iranian war may be nearing an end — though that has been publicly denied — and the market is buying it up regardless, pushing us up 64 points into fresh all-time highs in the Globex session. This is a news-driven headline push. Continue to monitor for developments, as this is an ongoing and frankly strange environment where price is moving on news that is not even official yet.
Holiday Note: Today is Memorial Day — the cash market is closed and all of today’s structure is futures-only and, in my view, complete trash. A new all-time high was made in Globex, which gives us an upside target, but holiday price action is generally retraced when we return. I am ignoring everything today except the new high.
Range: We are now closing out eight green weeks in a row and starting our ninth up here at the highs. Will week nine be green or red? Honestly, I am rooting for red at this point — this melt-up is starting to get a little ridiculous. But we trade the chart. Below the three-week composite value area low sits a very thin, low-volume gap-fill area we will have to watch closely if we start to slip lower.
Data: My History Says statistical bot — which monitors SPX across roughly 150 indicators — flagged on May 22nd that we are a little cooked up here. It shows a 5-day expected return of -2.3%, an 83% probability of moving lower over 5 days, and an 82% probability of trading roughly 3% lower over 10 days, based on 294 historical matches across 30 years of the exact same pattern. The last two times this fired — February 9th this year and November of last year — both produced big pullbacks. This is not a technical or process signal; it is statistical context to keep in the back of your brain if we start to pull back.
Trend: Buy the dip until proven otherwise. From a pure chart and technical perspective, we currently have no reason whatsoever to be looking to the short side. This market is absolutely pointed to the upside. The statistics are interesting, but the structure says up — so we respect the trend and treat pullbacks as buying opportunities.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Holiday Melt-Up & The Buy-the-Dip Structure
We come into the week of May 26th surfing all-time highs after eight consecutive green weeks. The defining feature of today is that we gapped up hard in the holiday Globex session on war-de-escalation headlines and printed a fresh all-time high — but again, I am treating all of that as noise. The only legitimate takeaway is the new high as an upside target. On the weekly TPO, we have been climbing in a beautiful stair-step: move up, go sideways and accept value, then push up again, with each value area overlapping the last. I combined the last three weeks into a single composite profile, and the read is clean — there was far more buying above the composite point of control than below it, which tells you buyers are firmly in charge up here. Below that composite POC is where things start to get shady, and below the composite value area low we drop into a thin, low-volume gap that will need watching.
On SPX, the big untested daily is 7501 — it was played multiple times on Friday and kept us suppressed, and it is our key above/below for the week. I will be honest: because we gapped up on a holiday, I am cautious here. If anything, I would use 7501 as a short target more than a place to get long — not because the structure is not important (it obviously is), but because I do not trust gap-up holiday action. Below 7501, our two buy spots are the 7435 4-Hour and the 7412 / 7410 daily-and-1-hour combo. Below the 7410-7412 area, we have no other untested support for quite some time. We tested 7390 last week — the same level as 7414 on ES — and launched off it to fill the massive gap above. If we break 7334 (the amazing 4-Hour we caught the long off of when we held structure and swept the low), we come all the way down with nothing untested until 7234 and the 7210 area we have been eyeing. If we get there, expect a real flush, because the true level of support is much lower. So on SPX: two spots to buy, and one critical above/below at 7501.
The cross-market confluence to remember: ES 7414 is the same structural level as SPX 7390, and ES 7374 lines up with SPX 7334. Watch SPX relative to ES at these spots for confirmation on whether a level pays. The bottom line is simple — we are in buy-the-dip territory until proven otherwise, the History Says statistics give us a reason to stay alert for a 2-3% pullback, but the chart itself gives no short signal. We respect the trend and wait for our spots.
🚨 VIX Analysis: The 17.44 Weekly/Monthly Above-Below
VIX is absolutely getting beat down. It just keeps pulling back, giving the indices more and more relief as we traverse all-time highs — there is clearly no fear in this market right now. With VIX this suppressed, the entire conversation is about which pivots signal a return of pressure.
The Big Above/Below Pivot: 17.44 - 17.48 (Weekly/Monthly). This is our primary above/below for the new week. If VIX pushes above the 17.50s, we start getting some headwind on the indices. As long as VIX stays below this zone, the indices keep their runway.
The Tested Support Below: 16.20 (Monthly — Very Tested). This monthly level is important and very much tested, so we use it for above/below reference. It could still get a reaction on a touch, but because it is heavily tested, I would not expect it to be a hard floor — more of a progression marker.
The Tested Resistance Stack: 18.40 (Tested), 19.42 (Giant Ceiling — Tested Multiple Times), 20.78 (Weekly — Tested). We have already tested the 18.40, and the 19.42 has been a giant ceiling that has played multiple times to the downside — all of this overhead is tested. We will monitor these for progression to gauge the pressure VIX could put on the indices, but none of it is untested.
The Only Untested Spot: 20.33 (4-Hour). This is the first and only untested upside spot, and it is just a small four-hour timeframe level. Do I expect a reaction? Sure — but more than likely it will not kill the move, and VIX will continue to progress. There is no untested upside resistance of consequence beyond this 4-Hour, which tells you the path of least resistance for VIX remains lower, and therefore the indices keep their relief.
🎯 Detailed Actionable Trade Plan (ES Futures)
We are playing the buy-the-dip thesis with a sharp awareness that today’s holiday action is noise. The major above/below pivot is 7527 — the big resistance we played from below on Friday. Above it (legitimately, in cash) we continue toward the Globex all-time high; below it, we work the buy-the-dip ladder. The single most important untested level on the entire board is the daily at 7434 — over 125 points below the holiday high — and below 7414 (now tested), the structure starts to soften considerably. Everything truly goes bad below 7374.
🔴 Key Resistance Zones & Setups
The Above/Below Pivot & ATH Gateway: 7525.00 - 7527.00
7527.00 (Tested Daily / 4-Hour — Friday’s Resistance), 7525.00 (Above/Below Pivot).
Context: This was the big resistance area we played from the bottom up on Friday, getting a nice reaction and a pullback before the holiday pop. Under normal, non-holiday circumstances, a close above 7527 would have me saying “we gained it — buy the first pullback.” But because this was gained in trash holiday action, I am not treating it as confirmed support yet. This is our key above/below pivot and the gateway back to the Globex all-time high.
Actionable Setup: I am not looking to blindly buy 7527 on the first pullback given the holiday distortion. Instead, let it play out and determine whether we stay above or below it coming into the cash session. A legitimate cash-session reclaim and acceptance above 7527 points us toward the new all-time high and the previous weekly value area high above. Below 7527, we rotate down into the buy ladder.
Warning: Do not trust the holiday gap. If price comes back down to 7527, treat it as an above/below decision point, not an automatic long.
🔵 Key Support Zones & Setups
The First Solid Buy — Naked POC Cluster: 7505.00 - 7508.25
7508.25 (1-Hour), 7507.25 (4-Hour), 7505.00 (Friday’s POC / Naked POC).
Context: This is the first really solid buy on a pullback. The 7507.25 4-Hour pairs with the 7508.25 1-Hour and sits right on top of Friday’s point of control / naked POC at 7505. That confluence makes it a clean reaction zone. Above 7507, we start to push up and have to re-tackle 7527.
Actionable Setup: Buy Setup: Look for this cluster to play, with a target back up around 7527 and runners hoping for a push higher. This is my first solid buy zone on a controlled pullback.
The Reclaim Zone: 7474.00 - 7478.00
7474.00 (1-Hour), 7478.00 (Reclaim Trigger).
Context: If we come lower, this is the next granular spot. I want to see the 7474 1-Hour play and then reclaim 7478 before getting long. That reclaim is the confirmation trigger.
Actionable Setup: Buy Setup: Watch 7474 for a reaction, then require a reclaim of 7478 before engaging. Without that reclaim, stay patient.
The Sellers-Stuffed Sweep: 7462.00 - 7469.50
7469.50 (Reclaim Target), 7465.00 (Sellers Stuffed — Daily TPO / Composite Weekly VAH), 7463.00 (Composite Weekly VAH / Sweep-Reclaim), 7462.00 (1-Hour Play Level).
Context: This is a spot I find genuinely interesting. On Thursday we had a very large cluster of sellers who got trapped and stuffed right around 7465, which aligns with the three-week composite value area high. If price comes down here and plays this stuffed-seller zone, I can see them reclaiming 7469.50 and squeezing back up a bit.
Actionable Setup: Sweep Setup: Look for 7462 to play, reclaim 7469, and ultimately 7474 for a little action to the upside. The trapped sellers above provide the fuel for a reclaim squeeze.
The 7450 Squeeze Pivot: 7450.00
7450.00 (Double 4-Hour Combo / Previous Weekly POC).
Context: I really like this spot. We have two stacked four-hour levels here combined with the previous weekly point of control. This is a meaningful confluence pivot.
Actionable Setup: Buy Setup: Want to see 7450 play and then push higher. Being back above the previous week’s value area high and the three-week composite value area high gives us every reason to keep looking up. This is a clean above/below for intraday progression.
The Last Untested Daily — Screaming Buy: 7426.00 - 7434.00
7434.00 (Only Untested Daily), 7432.50 (4-Hour), 7430.50 (4-Hour), 7429.00 (Naked POC), 7426.00 (1-Hour).
Context: This level is screaming at me. The 7434 daily is the only untested daily I have left on the entire board — over 125 points below the holiday high — and it stacks with the 7432.50 and 7430.50 four-hours, the 7429 naked POC, and the 7426 1-Hour into a beautiful daily/4-Hour/1-Hour combo. This is the same structural setup we see on SPX. It aligns just below the 7450 pivot.
Actionable Setup: Buy Setup: Want to see this combo play and get back above 7436, and they could really squeeze super nice off of this spot. This is the last untested daily, so it deserves your full attention if we rotate down into it. Get back above 7450 to confirm the squeeze higher.
Warning: This is the last untested daily area — if it fails to hold, the daily-timeframe support picture below gets very thin, very fast.
The Tested Daily Gate & Inception Sweep — Monthly VWAP: 7400.00 - 7414.00
7414.00 (Tested Daily — The Gate), 7407.00 (Wick Lows / Reclaim Trigger), 7405.00 (Untested 4-Hour), 7400.00 (Untested 4-Hour / Monthly VWAP).
Context: The 7414 daily was the big level all of last week — it played below and above and acted as support, but it is now very much tested, and below it this thing gets into serious trouble. Just beneath sits the inception of this entire move up: the 7405 and 7400 four-hours, which are very much untested, with the Monthly VWAP sitting right here as well. The 7407 wick lows are the reclaim trigger.
Actionable Setup: Buy Setup: Look for 7405 or 7400 to play with the Monthly VWAP support, then get back above the 7407 wick lows, and then back above 7414 — this could create a very large squeeze right back into the 7432 combo or even higher. This is the foundational buy of the whole leg up.
Warning: Below 7414, it starts to get really soft. This is the gate — the three-week composite point of control sits right in here, and you saw how hard the buying-versus-selling shifts beneath the composite POC. Below 7414, guard up.
The Breakdown Zone & Final Untested 4-Hour: 7340.00 - 7374.00
7374.00 (Structural Break — aligns with SPX 7334), 7365.00 (1-Hour), 7364.00 (Last & Final Untested 4-Hour), 7340.00 (4-Hour / below Composite VAL).
Context: It really goes bad below 7374 — this is the ES equivalent of the SPX 7334 level. Below the gate, we come down to the 7364 last and final untested four-hour (paired with a 7365 1-Hour), and beneath the three-week composite value area low — which has held this entire structure up — sits a 7340 four-hour.
Actionable Setup: Conditional Long: If price reaches 7364, watch for it to play. If we push beneath the composite VAL into 7340, they could play it and reclaim the composite wick lows for a squeeze back higher — something we should not ignore. But require the reclaim; do not catch the knife.
Warning: Below the three-week composite value area low, the structure turns south and we head into the thin low-volume gap. This is where the History Says 2-3% pullback scenario would be playing out in real time.
The Gap Fill & First Top-Down Daily Buy: 7264.00 - 7301.00
7325.00 - 7301.00 (Massive Weekly Gap Fill), 7264.00 (First Untested Top-Down Daily).
Context: Below the composite VAL we come down considerably and start filling the big massive gap from 7325 to 7301. Beneath that sits my first untested top-down daily at 7264, which I like very, very well. Given how fast we have moved up without a real retracement, this is the first genuinely solid high-timeframe buy if we lose the big structure.
Actionable Setup: Conditional Long: This is the area to really lay into it on a deep pullback — if 7264 holds, it could send us all the way back up. First real solid buy of the deeper-pullback scenario. Look for first-touch reaction and reclaim confirmation.
📌 Cheat Sheet – Key Levels Recap
4HR OVERLAY:
🧠 Final Thoughts
Here is the honest bottom line for the week of May 26th: the chart is screaming up, the statistics are whispering caution, and today’s holiday melt-up is pure noise. We are eight green weeks deep and starting our ninth at fresh all-time highs, and from a pure technical and process standpoint there is no reason to be short. We are in buy-the-dip territory until proven otherwise — full stop. At the same time, my History Says bot is flagging a high-probability 2-3% pullback scenario based on 294 historical matches, so if we do start to slip, you will know the expectation may be filling itself. That is not a reason to short; it is a reason to have your buy ladder ready.
The plan is clean. 7527 is the above/below pivot and the gateway back to the highs, but do not blindly buy it given the holiday distortion — let it prove itself in the cash session. On a pullback, work the ladder: the 7505-7508 naked POC cluster is the first solid buy, the 7450 double-4-Hour-and-POC combo is a clean pivot, and the 7434 last untested daily is genuinely screaming at me. Below 7414 the structure gets soft, and below 7374 it goes bad — that is where the deeper buy zones at 7340 and ultimately the 7264 top-down daily come into play. Keep VIX as your barometer: as long as it stays below the 17.44-17.48 zone, the indices keep their relief.
Remember to ignore today’s Globex action entirely — I have been hurt too many times trusting holiday price. We will let the real cash session tell us the story. Stick to the plan, stay patient, and let the spots come to you.
I will see you guys in the Discord room and on the stream when the market reopens.
Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!
Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.
📊 TradingView Indicator String
Copy and paste the levels below into your S&P Edge Levels indicator to automatically plot today’s key levels on your chart:
7527.00|Tested D|TD
7508.25|1HR|1H
7507.25|4HR|4H
7505.00|YDAY POC|PDOT
7474.00|1HR|1H
7450.00|4HR|4H
7434.00|D|D
7432.50|4HR|4H
7430.50|4HR|4H
7426.00|1HR|1H
7414.00|Tested D|TD
7405.00|4HR|4H
7400.00|4HR|4H
7365.00|1HR|1H
7364.00|4HR|4H
7340.00|4HR|4H
7264.00|D|D
