Special rollover edition. I’m supposed to be on vacation — Bubba and I linked up anyway.
Here’s what we got into:
Why I don’t trade rollover week. When the contract splits, you don’t know who’s controlling which book. Levels that should hold on one contract play perfectly on the other. I’d rather step back and touch grass than guess. Bubba adds a piece of floor history most people have never heard: there used to be a dedicated rollover pit.
The call he already got right. Last time we sat down, Bubba said the 10-year hits 5% before the end of September. We’re through it. Now he’s saying three more hikes this year and a real shot at 6%.
FOMC, a hawkish new chair, and what it means. My take on why they raise before they cut, the hot PPI print, and what an extra 50 basis points actually does to a new borrower’s monthly payment.
The 2007 echo. No-doc loans are back. Builders in Vegas are doing 0% down. Credit card delinquencies, auto defaults, mortgage defaults — we walk the numbers. Bubba’s read: this looks like 2001 and 2008 combined.
$100 in 1913 is worth 2.6 cents today. That’s the whole currency debasement argument in one number.
The Bitcoin plan. My level, my target, and why I want coins I can hand to my kid. Plus Bubba’s story about the kid who worked for him buying $20 a week under a dollar — and what he walked away with.
The trade that hasn’t had a losing close in over a year. Bubba’s neutral options structure — losers around a couple hundred bucks, one Oracle trade that printed $10,000. He gives the 30,000-foot view.
Why he’s anti-wheel. I run it, he hates it, and he offered to show me a better version with less margin. Plus why Rho suddenly matters again.
Hit play.
Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!
Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.
