Happy Weekend Review, everyone. It is Sunday, we open up in about two hours, and I am bringing you the high-timeframe overview after we finally got an amazing sell on Friday — and we had it nailed basically from the open. A lot of people did not see it coming, but we knew exactly what levels we needed to get below for this to happen, and it was written perfectly in the trade plan. Friday’s plan was literally titled “7542 Make It or Break It,” with a close eye on VIX at 16.20. I said all week, in the Week in Review, and in the post-market breakdowns that the 7542 ES leg and the 7520 SPX daily leg had to hold for us to continue back to all-time highs — and that below them, it was going to be bad to the downside. That is exactly what happened. On SPX we flushed from 7501 down into 7390, even 7370, for well over 120-130 points in the cash session alone. On ES, below 7542 and 7527 we just gave it up and flushed 130 to 170 points off the break. Another spectacular display of the process.
So we are staying very high-timeframe today. We came down hard, the picture has shifted, and we have some genuinely interesting data to work through. Let’s get into VIX, SPX, and ES.
📧 IMPORTANT — Please Check Your Spam Folder I have been sending out follow-ups and touch-ups to all subscribers as well as everyone signed up for the SPX Edge AM Brief, and I can clearly see that many of these emails are not getting opened — they are landing in spam folders. Please take 30 seconds to check your spam/junk folder for emails from rbailey@vicitradingsolutions.com and info@vicitradingsolutions.com, mark them as “Not Spam,” and add them to your contacts so you keep receiving them in your inbox. There is valuable information in those emails — daily plan notifications, brief updates, and webinar reminders — and I want to make sure you are actually getting them. Do it now and you will thank yourself this week.
📊 FREE DATA POST — VIX Closing Above 20% on a Friday I spent about four hours this weekend refining a data study I first ran on Free Alpha Friday: what happens the very next session after a massive S&P free-fall where VIX closes up over 20% on a Friday. The headline: there is a strong historical tendency to rally at least 0.65-0.7% from the cash open to the peak high the next day — though not necessarily from the open, since the average gap is about a half-point lower before the rebound. It is a treasure trove of context for positioning into Monday. It is free — read it once, maybe twice. Link is in this post.
A Note on This Week’s Market:
News: No specific Red Tag events on the immediate radar — but the internet is in full panic mode after one sell-off, calling for recession and popped bubbles. Relax. There is a lot of support here, we were expecting a liquidation break, and one down day is not a trend change. Continue to monitor for developments into the open.
VIX Data Signal: VIX closed Friday at a rare +39% — a huge move. Historically, when VIX closes above 20% on a Friday after a free-fall, the next session tends to produce a 0.65%+ intraday rally from the open to the peak. Average Monday gap is about 0.5% lower first, meaning we may drift lower in Globex tonight before the rebound. Only two of the historical instances rallied immediately from the cash open.
Range: Friday was a textbook liquidity break — escalator up over weeks, elevator down in a single session. ES flushed 130-170 points off the break with a vertical, no-volume push down. This is very typical ES behavior: rapid flush, then squeeze back up. We have a gap fill sitting below at 7301 and a longer-term bullish imbalance all the way up at 7787.
Gamma: We have flipped into a Negative Gamma environment coming into Monday. That means money can be made both ways and ranges will be huge — great for us, but squeezes can be violent, so respect the volatility.
Trend: We have lost the four-hour, one-hour, and daily timeframes — only the weekly is still up, and we would have to come down quite a bit more to shift that. My process says get short. But I am not crazy bearish — this market is designed to go up, and one sell-off is not the apocalypse. We follow the process, but we are hunting a rebound.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Liquidation Break & Hunting The Rebound
Friday was the sell-off we have been waiting on for quite some time, and it played exactly as the process laid out: lose 7542 and 7527 on ES (and 7520 / 7501 on SPX) and there was simply no other choice but to come down, because everything beneath was tested. We took an escalator up over the past several weeks and then took the elevator down in a single session — a classic liquidity break. Now the question is not whether the trend is broken (near-term, it is — we have lost the four-hour, one-hour, and daily), but where we find the rebound. I want to be clear: I am not crazy bearish. This market is designed to go higher, and this looks like an overdone, knee-jerk liquidation. We are hunting the bounce while respecting that we could still leak lower first.
On the weekly TPO, the down move pushed all the way through the five-week structure and tagged the three-week composite value area low at 7358, where we got a small reaction and held into the close. That 7358 composite VAL is a massive reclaim level — there is tons of volume there, and reclaiming it puts us right back in the previous week’s range. Below it, there is a clean gap fill down to 7301. The bigger-picture note: the weekly profile now shows a glaring bullish imbalance up at 7787 — a massive inefficiency that will sit up there for weeks until we eventually climb back through all-time highs. Remember it; we are not getting it this week, but it is up there for the taking.
On SPX, we are starting to lose without a doubt — a close under 7390 was bad, and under 7353 (the final untested leg to this entire move higher) would be even worse. Above us, the backside resistance is the untested 7410 4-Hour and the 7445 area; beyond that, we retest 7501 and 7520. To the downside, as long as we stay under 7329, we continue toward the 7200 range — specifically 7234 (daily), 7207 (4-Hour), and 7200 (daily) — which is roughly another 100 points from Friday’s lows. Below 7200, we could extend another 200 points, but I have a strong feeling 7200 gives us something for the week. The swept leg is the big magnet here: we either sweep these lows and reclaim, or we come down and grab the deeper support. Cross-market, SPX 7329 ≈ ES 7354 for the sweep-and-reclaim play.
🚨 VIX Analysis: The 23.43-24.70 Rejection Zone
VIX detonated on Friday, closing up a rare +39% at the highs — which is precisely what triggered the data study above. The path it took was exactly the launchpad we mapped: it held the 14.95 monthly, reclaimed the 16.20 midpoint pivot (the major launchpad), and then blasted above the 17.44 monthly ceiling — the last untested level for a long time — which fired it straight through the tested 18.43 and 19.42 dailies as pure momentum markers. Now it sits well above everything, and the question is where it gets rejected.
The Rejection Zone: 23.43 (Weekly) and 24.70 (Monthly). This is the major area I am watching for Monday — we could gap right into it. This is the spot that will more than likely provide a reaction and chill VIX out for a bit. I am looking for an open into here on Monday and a potential sellback. A rejection of this zone is the cue to get long the indices and ride the rebound.
The Highest Untested: 25.78 (Untested Daily). This is the highest untested daily, sitting just above the 23.43-24.70 confluence. If VIX pushes through 24.70, this is the next marker before clear skies.
The Clear-Skies Risk: 30.00 (The Last Final Spot). Above 24.70, I have nothing else for some time — VIX could run all the way into the $30 handle. That would be a real problem for the indices, but it is the lower-probability path. Note that as VIX pops and fades, these upper levels become support — just because VIX spikes here does not mean the volatility event is over; we could pull back, hold these as support, and pop right back up. Watch 23.43-24.70 for the rejection that gives the indices their relief.
🎯 Detailed Actionable Trade Plan (ES Futures)
We are hunting a rebound off an overdone liquidation, but the process still points down and we may leak lower first. The single most important level is 7414 — this is the momentum shift pivot. Above it, momentum flips back to the bulls. Below it, we remain in sell mode and work the deeper buy zones. Our two immediate long entries are 7340 and 7362 for a sweep-and-reclaim squeeze, with my favorite deeper buy being the 7264 daily. On a bounce, take profits into the overhead resistance — we have a lot of it, and we only have a couple of clean places to buy.
🔴 Key Resistance Zones & Setups
The Momentum Shift Pivot: 7414.00
7414.00 (Tested Daily — Momentum Shift Pivot).
Context: This is the single biggest level on the board. The 7414 daily is not just resistance — it is a massive momentum shift level. Two weeks ago, we held this and it sent us right back up to the all-time highs, and the daily chart shows a stack of support reactions right here. If we push above 7414, we shift momentum back into the favor of the bulls.
Actionable Setup: Above 7414, momentum flips bullish and the 7527 and 7542 break levels become untested-from-below reclaim targets — I would expect a reaction at both on the way back up. Below 7414, we stay in sell mode and let the deeper buy zones set up.
Warning: Do not get long aggressively until 7414 is reclaimed. Beneath it, the path of least resistance is still lower.
The 4-Hour Reaction & Singles Fill: 7448.00 - 7450.00
7450.00 (Tested 4-Hour), 7448.00 (Daily TPO Inefficiency Target).
Context: This is a clean reaction zone on a bounce. The 7450 4-Hour played perfectly on the way down, which means it should get a reaction on the way back up. It also sits right with the 7448 daily TPO inefficiency — a large target to fill that cleans up Friday’s massive single-print mess. Lots of confluence here.
Actionable Setup: If price reclaims 7414 and pushes up, expect a reaction at 7448-7450. This is a take-profit zone for anyone riding the squeeze up from the lower buys.
The Last 4-Hour Leg: 7510.00
7510.00 (4-Hour).
Context: Above 7450, there is nothing at all until 7510 — the last 4-Hour leg before the major broken levels above. Air pocket between here and 7450.
Actionable Setup: A reclaim through 7510 opens the door back to the major make-or-break zone at 7527-7542. Treat as a momentum marker on the way up.
The Broken Make-or-Break: 7527.00 - 7542.00
7542.00 (Tested Daily — Friday’s Break Level), 7527.00 (Tested Daily — Friday’s Break Level).
Context: These are the exact levels we broke on Friday to trigger the flush. Now they sit overhead as resistance from the backside — the make-or-break that defined the entire sell-off. Until we reclaim this zone, the larger bullish structure remains compromised.
Actionable Setup: A genuine reclaim and acceptance back above 7542 would signal the liquidation is fully repaired and we are back in all-time-high pursuit. Expect significant reactions at both 7527 and 7542 on any push back up.
🔵 Key Support Zones & Setups
The Composite VAL Sweep & Reclaim: 7354.00 - 7362.00
7362.00 (Long Entry), 7358.00 (Three-Week Composite Value Area Low), 7354.00 (Sweep & Reclaim Level).
Context: This is the line that held into Friday’s close. The 7358 three-week composite VAL is loaded with volume, and we already got a small reaction off it at the lows. The 7354 is the sweep-and-reclaim trigger — the same concept as SPX 7329. We are due for a flush and a squeeze, and this is where it could ignite.
Actionable Setup: Sweep Setup: Look for a wick/sweep below 7354, then a reclaim back above the composite VAL — this could squeeze us right up into the 7414 momentum shift pivot. If we are still here in the morning, 7362 is one of my two preferred long entries. Be cautious on the squeeze, but this is a real setup.
The Lower 4-Hour/Daily Sweep: 7336.00 - 7343.00
7343.00 (Untested from Bottom), 7340.00 (4-Hour), 7336.00 (Daily — Sweep Candidate).
Context: If we wick the lows, there is genuine support down here. The 7340 4-Hour is my other preferred long entry, and I think they could sweep the 7336 daily just beneath it. There is support in this band — if price wicks it and starts to reclaim, you will know buyers stepped in.
Actionable Setup: Conditional Long: 7340 and 7362 are the only two areas I would play for a long if we are still up here in the morning — unless we sweep below them and start to reclaim, in which case I would look to get long and ride runners up toward 7414. Require the reclaim; do not front-run the knife.
The Previous ATH & Gap Fill: 7300.00 - 7301.00
7301.00 (Weekly Gap Fill), 7300.00 (Previous All-Time High / Weekly Swing High).
Context: If we gap much lower or keep leaking, the 7300 previous all-time high and weekly swing high comes into play, right with the 7301 weekly gap fill. This is a logical magnet for the inefficiency cleanup.
Actionable Setup: Conditional Long: A push into this area fills the gap and sets up the deeper buy just below. We would want to see it play and reclaim 7300 to get back up into the structure above.
The Favorite Deep Buy: 7264.00
7264.00 (Daily — Favorite Deep Buy).
Context: This is the daily I have been talking about for multiple weeks, and it looks like it is finally coming — just a few weeks later than when we first flagged it. I like this area very, very well. I do think we come down to at least 7264 at some point, and my eyes will be peeled if we get there.
Actionable Setup: Buy Setup: Look for a pop off the 7264 daily. This is my favorite deeper buy on the entire board — if price reaches it and holds, it could send us all the way back up. Below 7264, we could extend another ~200 points, but I have a strong feeling this level gives us something this week. We will take it one trade plan at a time if it fails.
📌 Cheat Sheet – Key Levels Recap
🧠 Final Thoughts
Friday was the liquidation break we have been waiting on for quite some time, and the process nailed it from the open — lose 7542 and 7527, and there was nowhere to go but down. Now we hunt the rebound. The data is compelling: when VIX closes above 20% on a Friday after a free-fall, the next session tends to rally 0.65%+ from the open — but remember, the average gap is about a half-point lower first, so we may leak in Globex tonight before the bounce. We do not put the data ahead of the structure, but the two line up beautifully here. I would love to gap down, play a level, and look for a pop to start reclaiming.
Here is the framework. 7414 is the momentum shift pivot — above it, the bulls regain control; below it, we stay in sell mode. Our two clean long entries are 7340 and 7362 for a sweep-and-reclaim squeeze, and my favorite deeper buy is the 7264 daily if we leak that far. On VIX, I am watching for an open into the 23.43-24.70 rejection zone and a sellback — that is the cue to get long the indices and ride the grind up. We are in a Negative Gamma environment now, which means huge ranges and money both ways, but also violent squeezes — so if you are riding the bounce, take profits into the overhead resistance, because we only have a couple of clean places to buy and a lot of resistance above.
Do not feel like you have to jump in immediately Sunday night or even at Monday’s open. Be strategic, let the fear shake out, and let the structure align with the data. One sell-off is not the end of the world — there is a lot of support here, and this is going to present excellent buying opportunities. I am genuinely happy to be out of that range. And don’t forget to read that free data post — there is a ton in there that will help your Monday positioning.
I will see you tomorrow for the post-market breakdown. Stay patient, stick to the high-timeframe levels, and tomorrow we conquer the markets.
Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!
Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.
📊 TradingView Indicator String
Copy and paste the levels below into your S&P Edge Levels indicator to automatically plot today’s key levels on your chart:
7542.00|Tested D|TD
7527.00|Tested D|TD
7510.00|4HR|4H
7450.00|Tested 4HR|T4
7414.00|Tested D|TD
7340.00|4HR|4H
7336.00|D|D
7264.00|D|D
