What’s up, everybody? It’s time for the Weekend Review.
Before we get into the charts, I want to let you know about some big, exciting changes coming this week.
First and foremost, we are making a full transition over to the Ryan Bailey Edge brand. The Substack will get a full rebrand on Monday, where I’ll be giving you a more in-depth look at my profitability, the way I trade, and my process. We’re also launching a brand new YouTube channel and I’m becoming extremely active on Twitter, posting insights directly from the Discord room. This will be the last week this review is posted on the VICI YouTube. To make sure you don’t miss any of the new content, including daily post-market breakdowns coming soon, please follow the new channels.
Follow the New YouTube Channel: @RyanBaileyEdge
Follow Me on Twitter: @RyanBaileyEdge
Now, let’s get into the plan.
🧠 Current Market Context
After the massive move down two weeks ago, last week was all about balance. We spent the entire week cleaning up the inefficient auction from the prior week, accepting value in this range. The bulls never broke the low, which is interesting. Structurally, nothing has changed much, but one thing is crystal clear: the entire market, in my opinion, now depends on what happens at one specific level.
The whole story comes down to 6732.00. This is the only untested daily level that I have that separates us from making a new all-time high or getting absolutely dumped on. We’ve lost structure on the daily and the 4-hour, and my process currently says down. Until we get a daily close above 6732.00, I’m looking to short this thing. A close above it, and we are likely going to make a new all-time high, especially with the massive bullish imbalance target still waiting up at 6950.00.
🎯 Detailed Actionable Trade Plan
🔴 Key Resistance Zones & Setups
The “Make-It-or-Break-It” Short: 6732.00
This is the big level. Put it on your chart. This is our only untested daily resistance. I was expecting to short the shit out of this on Friday, but we never got there. If we get there this week, one of two things will happen: we either accept value and push to new highs, or we get absolutely decimated and come back to 6660.00.
The Naked POC Target: 6791.00
This is a naked point of control from the weekly TPO chart. While everything up here is tested from a candlestick perspective, this is an area of contention where we could very well see a reaction.
🔵 Key Support Zones & Setups
The First Untested 4-Hour Zone: 6659.00
This is the first area of untested support below us. This 4-hour level at 6659.00 is located right with the previous weekly value area low at 6660.00. I do believe this area will get a reaction.
Actionable Setup: I will be looking to buy this level. The trigger for a good long is a bounce that gets back above the 6664.00 pivot.
The Second Untested 4-Hour Zone: 6631.00
This area contains a tested daily at 6634.00, but an untested 4-hour at 6631.00. Because the 4-hour is fresh, it has my attention.
Actionable Setup: I’ll be looking for 6631.00 to play. A bounce needs to get back above 6634.00 for initial confirmation. I would take the majority of my profits around the 6659.00 - 6664.00 area. If we get continuation back above that, I’ll add back into the trade.
The “In Trouble” Line in the Sand: 6660.00
As you know, this has been our main line in the sand. This is the daily leg to the all-time high. The weekly TPO profile confirms that underneath 6660.00, this thing is in trouble.
The “Big Trouble” Line in the Sand: 6631.00
Below this level, she’s in big, big trouble. We have jack shit that’s untested under here until we get much, much lower.
📌 Cheat Sheet – Key Levels Recap
🧠 Final Thoughts
It all comes down to 6732.00, people. Put this level on your chart and call it a day. The market has given us a very clear line in the sand. My process says we should be looking for shorts until that level is reclaimed with a daily close. We will be very cautious, as the market is holding the lower structure for now, but the plan is defined.
Have a fantastic weekend, look for the plan to come out on Tuesday, and let’s make some money.
Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.
