Hey Team,
If you weren’t watching today’s post-market breakdown, I get it — life happens and it was a long one. So let me give you the highlights, because today was one of those days where everything came together, and there are three major things you need to know about right now.
The Trade Plan: 150 Points of Pure Conviction
We came into today staring down a 106-point gap lower on ES. Overnight session bled out even further — down 150 at one point. The headlines were ugly. The gut reaction was to get short.
But the data told a completely different story.
VIX closed up 24% on Friday. For those of you who follow my work, you already know the stat: when VIX closes up 20% or more on any given day, there is an 87.3% chance the S&P closes green the next session. That’s 32 years of data talking — not an opinion, not a gut feeling.
Stack on top of that: the bearish outside day reversal was pointing to a 76% probability of filling back to 67.15, and Edgeful’s gap fill data was showing a 90% chance of hitting the half gap target. Three independent data points, all screaming the same thing — get long.
And that’s exactly what happened. We bought the sweep at our last buy zone near 65.85-91, the market reclaimed our 66.74 level, squeezed through the 67.16-23 zone, and ripped 150 points off the lows. The levels from the trade plan played almost to the tick.
Still bearish overall — don’t get it twisted. Short squeezes in this environment are violent, and we’re watching the 68.59 area closely for potential resistance. VIX sitting on its massive monthly level at 24.70, with the untested weekly at 23.43 as the true line in the sand. Tomorrow’s trade plan drops at 8:30 AM sharp.
Want to see the full breakdown with charts and level-by-level progression? The video walks through everything — [watch the full replay above].
New TradingView Indicator — Your Levels, Pre-Mapped, for Free
This one’s been a long time coming, and I’m pumped to finally deliver it.
I just published a free indicator on TradingView that is going to save every single person who follows the trade plans a massive amount of time each morning. Here’s how it works:
Every morning when the trade plan goes out at 8:30, there will be a string at the bottom of the plan. You copy it, paste it into the indicator settings, and instantly — every level is already plotted on your chart. Color-coded, labeled, looking exactly like mine. No more spending an hour trying to hand-draw everything before the bell rings.
You can toggle it on and off, layer your own levels on top of it, or run it standalone. It’s completely flexible.
This was honestly way harder to build than I expected, which is why it took two weeks longer than promised. But it’s here now, and it’s a game-changer for anyone following along.
👉 [Click here to grab the indicator on TradingView — it’s 100% free]
Just search “Ryan Bailey Edge” on TradingView and look for the S&P Levels indicator.
How I Use Edgeful Every Single Day (Mini Walkthrough)
A lot of you have signed up through my link and have been asking how I actually use the platform day-to-day. So today I did a quick walkthrough in the video, but here’s the gist:
The “What’s In Play” Dashboard — This is the first thing I check every morning. You select your tickers, select which reports you want to see, and it gives you a real-time snapshot of every statistical setup that’s active for the session. Gap fills, outside day reversals, initial balance breakouts — it’s all right there. Today, that dashboard is exactly what flagged the 90% gap fill probability that we traded.
Individual Reports & Customization — This is where it gets really powerful. You can pull up gap fill reports, set your own fill thresholds (50%, 75%, 100%), and even break the data down by day of the week. I didn’t know this until recently — on Tuesdays, gap downs have filled 50% of the gap 100% of the time in recent data. On Thursdays? 33%. That kind of edge is invaluable.
Initial Balance Breakout Data — For those of you who trade market profile, this one is huge. The IB high or low gets broken 73% of the time. But the real gem? There’s a “by rejection” filter that tells you which side is most likely to break. If the high of the IB forms first, there’s an 87% chance the low breaks. That’s not a guess — that’s actionable data.
All of this runs about $50/month. That’s $2.50 per trading day for institutional-quality data that most retail traders don’t even know exists.
👉 [Click here to try Edgeful and get Exclusive Access Through My link]
The Big Announcement: VICI Trading Solutions x Target Trading
I’ve been waiting to share this one publicly, and here it is.
I have officially partnered with Target Trading — a major trading education and technology company that is going to take everything we’re building at VICI to the next level.
Here’s what this means for you:
Algorithmic Strategies — Our quant, Rob (Yale mathematics background, former NASA engineer, legitimate institutional-level quant), has been heads-down building an institutional-grade back tester and algorithmic trading programs. Target Trading is helping us launch these strategies to the public. Everything runs through IronBeam as the broker — we never touch your money. You link into the algorithmic strategies, and IronBeam handles all execution automatically. The first algo is producing 33-35% year-over-year returns. We have another in development doing north of 50%.
Education & Hedging Programs — Beyond our algos, Target Trading brings their own suite of education programs and automated hedging strategies for larger portfolios.
Only 50 spots are available for the first launch. This is not a drill.
📅 Wednesday at Noon — Live Webinar (Free)
This Wednesday, I’m doing an open house webinar with Target Trading where we’ll officially announce the partnership, walk through the new products, and show you the equity curves and stats on these algorithmic strategies.
It’s free to attend. Just sign up so you get the invite.
👉 [Click here to register for the Wednesday webinar]
Whether you’re interested in automation, education, or just want to see what’s coming — I highly encourage you to show up. This is the biggest thing to happen at VICI in a long time, and it’s going to allow us to bring products to the community that simply weren’t possible before.
This is just the beginning. Tomorrow the trade plan hits at 8:30 AM, grab that new indicator, check out Edgeful, and I’ll see you Wednesday at noon.
Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!
Ryan Bailey,
VICI Trading Solutions
