Some days you’re the bug. Some days you’re the windshield.
Thursday was a windshield day — but it didn’t start that way. I wrote the trade plan with ES down about 12 points, walked the dog, and came back to a 50-point flush bearing down on the 7600 zone we’ve been waiting on since last week.
My first long there got stopped. My second long, off the same level, paid.
Here’s what I got into on today’s breakdown:
The stop-out and the re-entry. Same level, two very different outcomes. I show exactly what had to be reclaimed before I’d press the button a second time — and why I passed on a deeper level that played perfectly, one I fished off a chart from two months back.
Three products to trade one. We trade ES, but SPX and VIX did the steering today. The SPX weekly at 7582 marked the low. The daily at 7609 capped the high — three separate times. VIX ripped through its 16.51 weekly, tagged 18.06, then chopped around the 17.44 monthly pivot into the close. That pivot is the tell for Friday.
A rare balance day. The session never broke its initial balance high or low. By my numbers, that happens on roughly 3–5% of days.
The do-or-die zone. This support is the lid on a 10-week balance range. Four big red days rarely V-bottom — they base first. Hold it overnight and I’m looking for a squeeze. Lose it, and we risk getting sucked back into that range. I lay out the 100-point downside path — plus the reclaim level that launched a 200-point run last week and could flip everything again.
Why I won’t trade the CPI print. August CPI hits at 8:30 ET. Even if my setup is sitting right there, I’m not touching it before the cash open.
Two traders getting their flowers. Shoutouts to two room members stacking funded accounts the patient way.
Heads-up on next week. It’s rollover week, and I’m taking it off. Friday’s trade plan is the last one until the following week, this was the final breakdown until then, and trade plan subscriptions will be paused so no one gets charged. The Inner Circle Discord stays open.
Friday could be a massive day in either direction.
Hit play. Mark your levels. Be ready at 9:30.
Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!
Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.
