Happy weekend, everybody. It is time for the Week in Review.
I hope everyone is staying warm. We are hitting so much snow here in Indiana—we probably have 16 inches. I haven’t left the house in two days, so I figured I would stay in my jammies and bust out this review.
On Friday, we had a monster sell-off after price broke our main Daily leg at 6891.00. They came all the way down and swept the lows into our 6805.50 Daily, which is a monster level holding up this whole structure. We immediately got long in the 6808.00 / 6813.00 area and played this for 50 points all the way up to 6857.25 for a perfect touch.
🧠 Current Market Context
Last week was interesting. We poked a new high and a new low, essentially breaking both sides of the weekly range.
The Divergence: SPX closed higher and is telling us we need a new high (even SPY came within a few dollars). However, ES did not close above the weekly leg on the weekly time frame.
The Weakness: ES has lost support on the Daily and 4-Hour timeframes (specifically the leg to the high). This is a little concerning.
The Bull Case: As long as we are above 6805.50, I am still looking to get long. This level is the “Make it or Break it” spot.
🚨 VIX Analysis: The 14.93 Floor
VIX is getting its head beat in, but be aware: every time we get into the $15.00 handle, we tend to get a pop.
The Floor: On Friday, we opened right at the 14.93 Daily. This provided an insane reaction that popped us past 17.21.
The Pivot: We are monitoring the Weekly at 15.73. Right now, we are sitting on it.
Resistance: 17.21 (Tested Daily). We need to watch this. If we push above the 15.73 Weekly, we look to the 17.21 Daily.
🎯 Detailed Actionable Trade Plan (ES Futures)
We are currently in a spot where we have lost the 4-Hour leg to the high, but the 6805.50 fortress is holding the structure.
🔴 Key Resistance Zones & Setups
Immediate Resistance: 6857.00
Previous Weekly POC: (6852.00)
Actionable Setup: If we can push and hold above 6857.00, we have a chance of moving higher. If we fail here, look for a fall back below.
Untested 4-Hour: 6861.00
Look for this area to potentially get a reaction. If it does, expect a fall back below 6857.00 for a potential short play.
The Resistance Cluster: 6872.00
Un-Tested Daily. We bumped our head a lot here and has proven to be a significant level. This spot is now untested and should be considered for a potential reaction.
The Major Pivot: 6891.00 - 6893.00
Daily Leg Down (6891.00) and 4-Hour (6893.00).
Actionable Setup: This is the “True Blue Pivot.” A push above this would likely continue our move higher, but a rejection from here could be catastrophic.
High Target: 6907.75
Untested 4-Hour / ETH Daily. Watch for a reaction here.
Actionable Setup: Look for continuation below 6891.00 for the short however a hold above 6891 will lead to more upside.
🔵 Key Support Zones & Setups
The Fortress: 6805.50
Line in the Sand. This level has held up the structure multiple times.
Actionable Setup: As long as we hold this (and 6813.50), we are bullish. If we lose 6805.50, “shit gets real.”
Reclaim Play: If we sweep below 6805.50, the moment we get back above 6805.50, this thing is juking back to the upside.
Weekly Singles Fill: 6784.50 - 6777.00
If 6805.50 fails, we clean up singles to 6784.50.
6788.50: Large Weekly (Previous Leg Tip). This could be a nice pullback area.
“Love It” Buy: 6765.00 - 6761.00
Daily Top Down Leg (6765.00) - ETH WK Leg Tip (6768.00) and RTH Weekly Leg Down (6761.00)
Actionable Setup: I love 6765.00 area. If we get down here, get back above 6768.00 and buy this thing.
📌 Cheat Sheet – Key Levels Recap
🧠 Final Thoughts
We have weakness on the Daily and 4-Hour, but we are holding the 6805.50 fortress. If we hold the lows in the Sunday overnight session Don’t be surprised if we start to get a big push on Monday and come all the way back up into the 6872 - 6891.25 spot.
If we pull back, I am looking to buy the 6805.50 reclaim or the 6765.00 level.
Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!
Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.
