Happy Sunday, family.
It is time for the Week in Review. Before we get started, I just put out a podcast with my hypnotherapist, Nathan. A lot of people have been asking about hypnotherapy and trading, so definitely check that out.
As for the market, we had a massive move down, slicing through everything (”Elevator Down”), and now we are seeing the classic “Stairs Up” recovery. I wrote an article about this specific market behavior, and I’ve linked it below.
A Note on Bitcoin:
We’ve been talking Bitcoin all week because it has been the lead sending us down. It is currently bouncing off our monthly level at $82,500.00. I personally bought at $86,250.00 and again at $82,750.00.
Context: This is a fantastic place for it to turn around, though it might take some time. No Guarantees but should hold here for now.
ES Implication: The reaction off this monthly leg is fantastic. I am expecting the indices to open either gap up or open firmly where we are currently at.
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🧠 Current Market Context
The question is: “Is this the low?” Maybe.
We swept the prior monthly low and held the 6552.00 4-Hour level perfectly on Thursday/Friday. They didn’t close below 6552.00 a single time after the market opened back up, which was a huge sign of strength for us on Friday Morning.
They did a liquidity sweep and then squeezed to go back up. This is textbook “Elevator Down, Stairs Up.” Default to the upside as long as we stay above 6605.00.
🚨 VIX Analysis: The “Kicker”
This is the kicker for me right here. This is going to make all the difference in the world.
The Pivot: 20.78 (Daily/Weekly Leg Up).
The Setup: VIX is coming down to test this support. This would be a “textbook setup” for VIX to hold.
Implication for ES: We will probably continue to move up in ES until VIX reaches 20.78. Then, I am going to start looking for high timeframe resistance in ES for a potential down move.
Scenarios:
Bearish for ES: If VIX holds 20.78, ES likely rejects resistance.
Bullish for ES: If VIX breaks below 20.78, we target the 19.13 weekly. This would allow ES to make new highs.
🗺️ ES Weekly TPO Insights
We have had a massive area of accumulation and are starting to move outside of this range.
Inefficiencies: We have inefficiencies higher up in the 6740.00s and 6760.00s. This whole area needs to be filled in.
Structure: This is a very low volume area that could potentially get some love.
🎯 Detailed Actionable Trade Plan (ES Futures)
My thesis is “Stairs Up.” As long as we hold the 6605.00 pivot, I am defaulting to the upside to target the resistance cluster above.
🔴 Key Resistance Zones & Setups
Mid-Pivot Cluster: 6692.00 - 6706.00
6692.00: Midpoint Pivot & Untested 4hr & Prev. WK VAH.
6697.50: ETH Daily.
6706.00: Previous Weekly Value Leg Down (Tested)
Actionable Setup: I think this area gets a reaction. It might not “kill it,” but expect a pause here.
“Juicy” Resistance Zone: 6723.00 - 6738.00
6723.00 & 6729.00: Massive resistance area that played on Thursday as support.
6738.00: The Sub-Leg to the All-Time High. We have talked about this for weeks.
Actionable Setup: This whole area is “pretty juicy.” Be aware of the 50-day moving average and the leg tip at 6767.00.
Trend Shift: Above 6767.00
Actionable Setup: Once we get above 6767.00, I am starting to think long side for sure.
Major Target: 6805.00
This daily level was barely missed on the move down and is technically still untested.
🔵 Key Support Zones & Setups
The “Big Pivot”: 6605.00
This is the big pivot for us. We tested it Friday and popped back up.
Actionable Setup: As long as we stay above 6605.00, default to the upside.
“Singles Repair” / Long Setup: 6591.00 - 6595.75
We have singles in the profile down to 6596.75 that need repair. This aligns with the 6595.75 Weekly (untested from top down) and the 6591.00 4-Hour.
Actionable Setup: My guess is this area gets cleaned up. Look for the zone between 6591.00 and 6595.75 to play, and get back above 6605.00 for continuation.
Targets: Keep stops below 6591.00. Ride it to 6692.00 / 6697.00.
Value Area Play: 6585.00
6585.00 is the Previous Weekly Value Area Low.
Actionable Setup: As long as we stay above 6585.00, we are in value. Value rules say we traverse to the POC at 6653.00 and then the VAH around 6690.00.
Downside Warning: Below 6591.00
6591.00 is the kicker for me. If we push below 6591.00 and the 100-day moving average at 6580.00, be very careful. It could roll over.
The “Base” Support: 6552.00
This is the 4-Hour level that held the lows. It reset the structure.
📌 Cheat Sheet – Key Levels Recap
🧠 Final Thoughts
We have established a pattern: Big moves down, stair steps up. We held the monthly low sweep at 6552.00.
The plan is to look for the “singles repair” pullback into 6595.75 / 6591.00 to get long, reclaim 6605.00, and ride the stairs up to 6692.00 and potentially 6738.00. Watch the VIX at 20.78 like a hawk; that is the deciding factor for the next leg.
Check out the podcast with Nathan and the “Elevator Down, Stairs Up” article linked below. Have a great rest of your Sunday.
Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer the markets!
Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.
