Morning everyone. Today is Sunday, March 8th, and it is time to kick off another amazing week as we just absolutely murder these markets. We had an insane week last week, and I am happy to be back home to dive into the charts with you. We gapped down 106 points right at the open tonight, setting the stage for some extreme volatility heading into Monday.
A Note on Today’s Market:
Catalyst: Geopolitical events developed over the weekend, contributing to the massive gap down.
VIX Statistic (Must Read): VIX was up 48% this week and closed up over 24% on Friday. Historically, there is a 90% chance the market rallies within the next 24 to 48 hours when this happens.
Trend: Downside intraday. We have not gained on the Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, or even the 1-Hour timeframes. All signs point down right now.
Bias: Despite the intraday downside, I remain high timeframe bullish.
🧠 Current Market Context
Breaking the Balance Range We have finally broken out of the massive balance range we’ve been sitting in for months. We closed the week at the lows, pulling back directly into a massive volume support area.
With the 106-point gap down, everything has shifted. We are essentially looking for sweeps of extreme lows to set up a potential reclaim trade, keeping that 95% VIX rally statistic in the back of our minds.
🚨 VIX Analysis: The 23.43 Confluence Zone
VIX broke out of our 20.78 Weekly, back-tested it, and absolutely launched, sweeping the 28.99 level we discussed on Friday.
The Pullback Targets: With the big wick over the highs, we could pull back. I like the big Monthly at 24.70 and Daily at 24.57 for a potential retest and pop.
The Sexy Zone: 23.43 (Weekly). This area has a massive amount of confluence. If we pull down into this zone, expect a nice relief pop for the indices.
The Flush: Below 23.43, we push down swiftly. The only untested spots below are 20.09 and 19.95, but I don’t love them.
🎯 Detailed Actionable Trade Plan (ES Futures)
The gap down has completely shifted our immediate Above/Below pivots. We are watching our downside support zones extremely closely for sweeps.
🔴 Key Resistance Zones & Setups
The New Momentum Shift: 6908.75
Levels: 6908.75 (Prev Weekly VAH).
Context: This is our new big Above/Below level at the highs, replacing 6903.00.
Actionable Setup: If we break out above 6908.75, we shift back up and can make new all-time highs. As long as we stay below it, we remain bearish.
The Monster Untested Weekly: 6859.00
Levels: 6859.00 (Untested Weekly / 100-Day MA).
Context: This is our “mumbo jumbo” resistance level right now. I think we can eventually pop back up and test this area.
The Friday Barometer: 6777.00 - 6788.50
Levels: 6788.50 (Weekly), 6777.00 (Prev Weekly VAL).
Context: The 6777.00 area played six times on Friday.
Actionable Setup: This is a massive shift zone. Above it we go up, below it we continue down.
🔵 Key Support Zones & Setups
The Post-Gap Pivots: 6716.00 - 6723.00
Levels: 6723.00 and 6716.00.
Context: With the massive gap down, these are our big Above/Below spots for the immediate area.
The Reclaim Squeeze: 6660.00 - 6674.00
Levels: 6674.00 (Sweep Area), 6664.00 (Daily), 6660.00 (Daily).
Actionable Setup: Sweep Setup: We want to see 6664.00 or 6660.00 play. If we reclaim 6674.00, we squeeze all the way back up into the 6716.00 - 6723.00 area.
The Danger Zone: 6627.00 - 6633.00
Levels: 6633.00 and 6627.00.
Context: This area is very much tested. Holding this is extremely pivotal.
Actionable Setup: Short Setup: If we push below 6627.00, down she goes. We could sweep the absolute lowest levels at 6539.00.
The Last Line to Buy: 6585.00 - 6591.00
Levels: 6591.00 (Support), 6585.00 (Prev Weekly VAL).
Context: I would be scared to buy 6591.00.
Actionable Setup: It is best used as a sharp short target.
📌 Cheat Sheet – Key Levels Recap
🧠 Final Thoughts
The 106-point gap down has completely shifted our immediate game plan. While the intraday timeframe is bleeding out, do not forget the VIX statistic: a close like Friday’s historically leads to a massive rally within 24-48 hours. We will be watching the 6660.00 - 6674.00 area closely for a sweep and reclaim to get long. Stay patient, stick to the process, and wait for the chart to prove itself before stepping in front of this freight train.
Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!
Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.
