Welcome back everyone, and happy Sunday. It is time for the Week in Review, and I hope everyone had a chance to enjoy this absolutely glorious weekend. We come into the week of April 27th sitting in a structurally bullish posture across the board — VIX is suppressed underneath both the $21 and $19 handles, SPX continues to drift toward all-time highs, and ES is balancing right at the highs of an extended squeeze that has now been one for the history books. The chart gives us no reason to look down right now — but the data is starting to tell us a different story for the next week or two, and that is exactly what we are going to map out today.
I just put out a publication this weekend that everyone reading this needs to take ten minutes with. It is not behind a paywall, it is completely free, and it lays out a banger of a swing trade that I have essentially handed to you on a silver platter. The data says we should expect roughly a 2% to 4% pullback over the next week or so, and then a follow-through rally of approximately 5% off of that pullback. That is a swing trade you can put on and go play golf with. Read it, share it with your friends, and use the levels we are about to walk through as your execution map. This is the kind of alpha people pay thousands a month chasing on Twitter — and I am giving it away for free.
📣 Webinar — How to Trade the Trade Plan I am hosting a live webinar on April 30th at 6:00 PM EST — How to Trade the Trade Plan. We are going to walk through why the levels matter, how to use the options levels, and most importantly I will be doing a full Q&A at the end. Bring your questions. Reserve your seat now → https://pages.vicitradingsolutions.com/tradetheplan
📰 The Market Top Write-Up — Read This Before Monday Over the weekend I published a free post breaking down whether the rally is topping. The data does not say crash — it says 2–4% pullback, then another 5% rally. This piece confirms our entire weekend bias and outlines an incredible swing trade setup. Read it, retweet it, share it with a friend.
☕ Free SPX Edge AM Brief Free for a limited time — point of controls, value areas, TWAP positioning, pattern intelligence, and 4 a.m.-fresh news, all delivered before the open. Sign up → https://pages.vicitradingsolutions.com/spx-edge
Also — I just did a podcast with Bubba, totally unscripted for about an hour. It is up on X, Substack, and YouTube. Tune in if you get a chance.
A Note on This Week’s Market:
Data Thesis: The data points to a 2% to 4% pullback over the next week or so, followed by another 5% rally off that pullback. A 2% pullback brings SPX to roughly 7000, a 3% pullback brings us into the 6940 area, and a 4.5% pullback drops us into the 6850 monster zone. Any of these would be a fantastic buying opportunity given the projected follow-through.
Range & Volume: This entire squeeze has been done on very thin volume with low liquidity, leaving gap fills below at the 6940 ES area. We are now closed and pushing higher than the 2nd standard deviation on the yearly VWAP — we are well outside expected value, which structurally supports the case for a reversion back toward our key support zones before the next leg up.
Gamma: We remain in a Positive Gamma regime — dealers continue to hedge to the upside, which is a structural tailwind. This regime has not flipped, and that is a key reason the chart still points up.
Trend: Up on all timeframes. The 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages are all curling to the upside. We have no reason to believe this thing is going to spill — we have massive support stacked underneath us. We trade the chart, and the chart points up. The question is not direction; the question is when the data-driven pullback comes and which level it stops at.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Extended Rally & The Pullback Roadmap
Right now we are riding the monthly TWAP one-standard-deviation band on SPX as we continue to trend hard to the upside. That is a strong structural tell — we are in trend, we are accepting value at the highs, and the path of least resistance is up. However, we are also closed and pushed above the 2nd standard deviation on the yearly VWAP, which means from a value perspective we are slightly extended. History says when we get sucked back inside the 2nd standard, we can retest it and go all the way back to the highs. Same setup is in play here — and the data we just published quantifies it: a 2-to-4% pullback followed by a 5% rally.
On SPX, the monthly TWAP sits at roughly 6897 — call it 6900 — and that is monthly value. Interestingly, that lines up perfectly with our potential pullback zone. A 2% pullback puts us around 7000, and a 3-to-4.5% pullback drops us into the 6940 to 6850 zones we will discuss below. Until that pullback arrives, the key SPX above/below is 7064 — under that level, we start peeling down into the support zones below. Our first SPX level to buy on a pullback is 7141 (4HR), and if price pulls back into that area we want it to get back above 7108 for confirmation that we are pushing higher, with first targets at 7141 and then new highs. Below 7094.77 — the main 4HR leg up — things get shady. We do have a 4HR at 7030.64 that should get some love, and if it plays we want to see price reclaim 7064 for continuation back up to the 7100 profit-take area. Deeper down, my favorite SPX zones are the 6946 / 6940 Monthly/Daily combo (a fantastic spot for a long), the 6881 and 6869 Dailies, and the absolute monster 6849-6850 Weekly/Monthly combination paired with the 6839 Daily — that area would represent a roughly 4.5% pullback, and God bless if they give it to us, because the follow-through long would be amazing.
On ES, the picture rhymes perfectly with SPX. The Previous Weekly Value Area High at 7070 is the key floor for the current squeeze — stay above this and we keep pushing higher. 7152 is a prime buy spot if we pull back gently, and underneath 7152 is where things start to get a little shaky. Where everything truly goes south is underneath 7121 and the Previous Weekly VAL at 7132 — below that, we are no longer just consolidating, we are setting up for the deeper pullback toward our prime zones. The structural setup is clean: stay above 7152, we keep grinding; lose 7132, the data-driven pullback is in motion and we go shopping at our favorite spots below. The yearly VWAP point of control, by the way, sits at 6960 — which lines up almost perfectly with our 6963.50 Weekly and 6961.75 Daily confluence. That is not a coincidence. That is alpha.
🚨 VIX Analysis: The 18.63 Line in the Sand
VIX is currently very suppressed — we are now underneath both the $21 handle and the $19 handle, and you guys know how adamant I have been about that $19 line. With VIX continuing to move lower, the big line in the sand has shifted lower as well, and we now have a daily level at 18.63 as our primary above/below pivot. As long as VIX remains under 18.63, the indices have a clear runway to continue drifting higher.
The Headwind Stack: 19.42 (Tested Daily) and 20.78 (Weekly — recently smacked on the 21st), 21.49 (Daily — touched a few days after the 20.78 smack). A push above 18.63 sends VIX into the 19.42 Tested Daily and into the broader 4HR resistance zone. Above 20.78 is where we start getting suppression that bleeds into the indices, and a sustained move above 21.49 would have us re-evaluating the entire bullish thesis. None of this is on the immediate radar, but these are our ladder of escalating pressure.
The Downside Reaction Zone: 18.17 (Support) and the combo of 17.48 (Untested Daily / Gap Fill) with 17.44 (Significant Monthly). VIX has support at 18.17 that could provide a reaction — do not mistake the deeper zone as the only spot to watch. However, the 17.44 / 17.48 combo is a meaningful structural support and a gap fill, and as we drift toward all-time highs on SPX, this is where I will personally be taking profits on my long index positions. We have no structural context to the upside on SPX other than options levels — so the VIX reaction zones are how I am going to time my exits.
The Big-Picture Tell: Once we get into the $16 to $13 range — which we have talked about for months — historical reactions there are violent, but they are truly buying moments for the indices when they come. We are not there yet, but it is on the radar. Right now VIX is just getting pushed lower and there is no reason to believe it will not continue.
🎯 Detailed Actionable Trade Plan (ES Futures)
We are playing the bullish thesis with the expectation of a healthy 2-to-4% pullback over the next week or so. The major above/below pivots are crystal clear: above 7152 we keep grinding, below 7132 the pullback engages, and below 7121 the broader weekly profile breaks down. The prime pullback buy zones are 7154.75 (favorite mid-range buy with Previous Weekly POC confluence), 7069.50 (the sexy 4HR sweep play), and the 6961.75 / 6963.50 Weekly/Daily/Yearly POC confluence — my absolute favorite spot on the entire map.
🔴 Key Resistance Zones & Setups
The Singles Fill & Reclaim Zone: 7175.00 - 7181.00
7181.00 (Untested 4-Hour), 7178.00 (Weekly Singles Target), 7175.00 (Untested 1-Hour).
Context: This is the upper band of the current consolidation. The 7181 4-Hour is technically untested but it is not my absolute favorite — even though it is untested, we still have singles in the profile down to 7178 that will more than likely need to get cleaned up before the next leg. The 7175 1-Hour sits right in this band and gives us a cleaner entry if we slice into it.
Actionable Setup: Sweep Setup: Look for price to play 7175, clean up the singles down to 7178, and reclaim 7181 for confirmation. A reclaim above 7181 also gets us back above Thursday’s high and above all the surrounding congestion — from there we can expect a potential squeeze right back toward new all-time highs. This is the cleanest immediate breakout play on the board.
🔵 Key Support Zones & Setups
The Untested 4-Hour: 7164.00
7164.00 (Untested 4-Hour).
Context: This is absolutely untested, but again, it is not my favorite level. It might play — I just do not want to be aggressive about it. Use it as a stepping stone, not as a primary buy.
Actionable Setup: If price plays 7164 and shows a reaction, use it as part of the reclaim ladder back up toward 7181. Do not chase aggressively here.
The Favorite Mid-Range Buy: 7154.75
7154.75 (4-Hour / 1-Hour Combo / Previous Weekly POC).
Context: This is the spot I really like in the upper range. It is a clean 4-Hour and 1-Hour combo that lines up almost perfectly with the Previous Weekly Point of Control — that is real confluence. 7152 sits right with it as a prime buy spot. Beneath this whole zone is where things start to get shaky.
Actionable Setup: Buy Setup: Look for 7154.75 to play, then we want to see price get back above 7160 to engage, then above 7164, then above 7175, and finally above 7181 — the staircase reclaim that takes us right back toward a new all-time high. This is the cleanest structured buy of the upper range.
Warning: This is the last untested area of support I have above the deep zones. Losing 7154.75 is significant — we would essentially be left with only the 7132.50 4-Hour as a sweep candidate before everything goes south.
The Critical Floor — 4HR / Tested Daily / P.W. VAL: 7132.00 - 7134.00
7134.00 (Very Tested Daily), 7132.50 (Untested 4-Hour), 7132.00 (Previous Weekly VAL), 7121.00 (Critical Profile Floor).
Context: This is the line in the sand for the entire bullish micro-structure. The 7132.50 4-Hour is technically untested but they have missed it twice — I do not know how well it will play, but we cannot ignore it. It sits right next to the 7134 Very Tested Daily, and the Previous Weekly VAL at 7132 ties it all together. Beneath this combo, 7121 is where everything truly goes south based on the broader profile — this is the big selling ledge that, once lost, opens the gates to the deeper pullback.
Actionable Setup: Sweep Setup: Look for 7132 to play, then we want price to get back above 7136 for confirmation. If that happens, we will squeeze and come back probably into the 7150 area and potentially higher. There is still a massive amount of support in here as we base sideways.
Warning: Everything goes bad underneath 7132. And it is really locked in below the Previous Weekly VAL at 7132. A sustained break below 7121 confirms the 2-4% data-driven pullback is engaging — at that point, stop trying to catch the falling knife and wait for the deeper buy zones to set up.
The Previous Weekly VAH: 7070.00
7070.00 (Previous Weekly VAH).
Context: This is the floor of the previous week’s value area and the structural pivot for the current squeeze. We have closed outside the previous week’s value area and the week before that’s value area as well — meaning from a pure value perspective, we are slightly extended. We want to stay above 7070 to continue the push higher. A loss of this level signals real value-area mean reversion is in play.
Actionable Setup: As long as price holds above 7070, the squeeze thesis remains intact. A break below opens the door to the sexy 4HR sweep play just below.
The Sexy 4-Hour Sweep: 7069.50
7069.50 (4-Hour).
Context: This is the same spot on ES that I called out at 7030.64 on SPX — they line up perfectly. This is a sexy level and it sets up a really clean sweep play. We have a daily low here and another below it; when this profile swept the prior daily low recently, we squeezed all-time highs right after. Same setup is available here.
Actionable Setup: Sweep Setup: Look for price to come down here, play 7069.50, and reclaim 7080. If we get that reclaim, this thing will squeeze all the way back up to 7121 and then 7134 for an excellent target zone. I really like this trade — clean risk, defined invalidation, and a meaningful reward.
The 7000 Lean Zone: 7004.00 - 7022.00
7022.00 (Untested Daily), 7008.00 (Untested 4-Hour), 7004.00 (Weekly).
Context: This is a support cluster I want to lean on — but I will not be aggressive here. The 7004 Weekly is honestly ambiguous on tested status (it shows tested on the RTH timeframe but not on the ETH timeframe), and I do not love the 7022 Daily on its own. What I do like is the 7008 4-Hour sitting right in the middle of the zone. The play is to let price come into the middle of this band, hold the 4-Hour, and reclaim 7022 to push higher using the 7004 Weekly as our support to lean on.
Actionable Setup: Conditional Long: Watch for 7008 to play, then look for a reclaim of 7022 for confirmation that buyers have stepped in. Do not get aggressive here until we either confirm with the reclaim or pull back into the deeper zone below.
The Prime Buy — Yearly POC Confluence: 6961.75 - 6963.50
6963.50 (Weekly), 6961.75 (Daily), 6960.00 (Yearly Point of Control).
Context: This is my favorite spot on the entire map. The 6963.50 Weekly and the 6961.75 Daily form a powerful confluence — and the cherry on top is that the Yearly Point of Control sits at 6960, lining up almost perfectly with the rest. This zone has Monthly, Weekly, and Daily structure all stacked on top of the yearly value anchor. From the way I chart and the levels I love, this does not get any better. It is also the big top-down off our massive leg down. This is the prime buy.
Actionable Setup: Buy Setup: Look for 6961.75 to play or 6963.50 to play — then we want price to get back above 6989-6990 to engage and ultimately back above 7004 for our continuation higher. If this is the low and it confirms, we could just put on calls, go play golf, and ride it for weeks. This is the swing trade I outlined in the weekend write-up — the same one everyone should be reading.
The Deep Pullback Cluster: 6834.75 - 6883.00
6883.00 (Weekly), 6875.00 (Tested Daily), 6857.00 (Tested Monthly), 6834.75 (Daily).
Context: This is my second-favorite high-timeframe zone if we get a deeper pullback — the 4.5% scenario. The 6883 Weekly is something we played on the way up. 6875 is a level that was important on the way up and on the way down — and when a level matters on both directions, you respect it. The 6857 Monthly is the famous monthly that kept the lid on things on the way down and was the major pivot once we got above it on the way up — everyone remembers this level. Below that, the 6834.75 Daily anchors the entire cluster.
Actionable Setup: Conditional Long: If we see a deeper, faster pullback into this zone, look for a first-touch reaction at 6875 as the primary defense and then 6857 beneath. The deeper we go, the cleaner the swing-long risk/reward — but also the more reclaim work the bulls have to do. Require reclaims above each major pivot before sizing up.
Warning: A loss of 6834.75 changes the structural picture meaningfully. The bullish trend is not broken until we lose this entire cluster, but if we do, it would be time to step back, let the dust settle, and reassess from scratch.
📌 Cheat Sheet – Key Levels Recap
🧠 Final Thoughts
The chart points up. The data points to a healthy pullback. Both can be true — and that is the entire setup for the week of April 27th. We are extended above the 2nd standard deviation on the yearly VWAP, we have left thin-volume gaps below us, and the data I just published this weekend says to expect a 2-4% pullback followed by a 5% rally. That is not a top call. That is a buy-the-dip roadmap. The job this week is not to predict the exact moment of the pullback — it is to be ready with our levels so we can execute when it arrives.
Above 7152 on ES, we keep grinding. Below 7132, the pullback engages. Our prime mid-range buy is 7154.75 with the Previous Weekly POC confluence; the sexy sweep play sits at 7069.50 with a 7080 reclaim trigger; and my absolute favorite is the 6961.75 / 6963.50 Weekly/Daily/Yearly POC stack — that is the swing trade I handed out for free this weekend. On VIX, 18.63 is the new line in the sand, and the 17.44 Monthly / 17.48 Daily gap fill is where I personally will be taking profits on my long index positions before the pullback arrives. Patience pays here. Let the pullback come to you, lean on the levels, and require reclaims for confirmation before sizing up.
One more time — read the weekend post, sign up for the webinar on April 30th at 6 PM EST at https://pages.vicitradingsolutions.com/tradetheplan, and grab the free SPX Edge AM Brief at https://pages.vicitradingsolutions.com/spx-edge while it is still free. Bring your questions to the webinar. Share the swing-trade post with a friend. This is a unique alpha drop — take advantage.
Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!
Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.
📊 TradingView Indicator String
Copy and paste the levels below into your S&P Edge Levels indicator to automatically plot today’s key levels on your chart:
7181.00|4HR|4H
7175.00|1HR|1H
7164.00|4HR|4H
7154.75|4HR|4H
7134.00|Tested D|TD
7132.50|4HR|4H
7132.00|P.W. VAL|GD
7070.00|P.W. VAH|GD
7069.50|4HR|4H
7022.00|D|D
7008.00|4HR|4H
7004.00|WK|W
6963.50|WK|W
6961.75|D|D
6883.00|WK|W
6875.00|Tested D|TD
6857.00|Tested MO|TM
6834.75|D|D
