The 945 TWh Copper Squeeze: Why AI Power Demand Is Setting Up a Supply Shock Traders Can’t Ignore
Data-center electricity demand is projected to jump from ~415 TWh in 2024 to ~945 TWh by 2030, while copper demand tied to data centers and grid expansion is accelerating into a structural bottleneck.
Hello Team,
I’ve got a big one for you today, and one number says it all: 945 TWh.
That’s where global data-center electricity demand is projected to land by 2030 in the latest AI-driven power outlook, up from roughly 415 TWh in 2024. That is more than a 2x increase in six years.
And here’s the part most people still underestimate:
This is not just a “chip” story. This is a power-delivery story.
And power-delivery is a copper story.
THE AI POWER DEMAND SURGE IS REAL
The digital buildout is now colliding with physical infrastructure:
• EPRI’s U.S. scenarios show data centers rising to ~4.6%–9.1% of U.S. electricity generation by 2030, up from roughly 4% in 2023.
• Reuters reporting shows grid investment is projected to exceed $400B in 2025 (after a $390B record in 2024), with copper demand from power generation + transmission expected to rise to 14.87M metric tons by 2030 from 12.52M this year.
• CRU (via Reuters) estimates copper demand from data centers around 260K tons in 2025, up from 78K in 2020, and above 650K tons by 2030.
So when people say “AI demand,” translate that into three copper-intensive layers:
Data-center electrical systems,
Cooling and thermal management,
Grid buildout to feed those facilities.
THE COPPER MARKET IS ALREADY SIGNALING TIGHTNESS
This isn’t theory anymore.
Reuters data points:
• Copper touched ~$11,952/ton in Dec 2025.
• Market deficits were estimated around 124K tons (2025) and 150K tons (2026).
• Bank of America (via Reuters) sees global copper demand up to ~30.32M tons by 2030, with a projected 1.84M-ton deficit by 2030.
S&P Global data (reported by Reuters) pushes the long arc even harder:
• Copper demand rising from ~28M tons (2025) to ~42M tons (2040),
• With potential annual shortfalls above 10M tons if recycling + mining don’t accelerate.
That is not “temporary imbalance.”
That is structural stress.
WHAT’S HAPPENING WITH CHINA?
The story is nuanced, but the direction is clear: China remains the center of gravity in copper processing.
Reuters highlights:
• China refined copper output in 2025 projected up ~7.5% to 12%, above 13.64M tons prior record.
• China’s concentrate imports rose 6.4% in H1 2025 while global ore supply growth was only expected around 0.3%–0.87%.
• China’s net refined copper imports fell (to ~3.03M tons in 2025, lowest since 2017), but this was heavily influenced by tariff/arbitrage distortions and redirected flows to the U.S., not a collapse in structural need.
Bottom line: China is still a dominant pull on copper units, even if customs flows look choppy quarter-to-quarter.
U.S. RESOURCE ANGLE: ALASKA, COLORADO, AND WHAT’S ACTIONABLE
There are two separate questions traders should keep distinct:
Question A: Is there enough copper in the ground?
Question B: Can it be permitted, financed, and delivered fast enough?
On Alaska:
• Alaska DNR describes Pebble West (~4.1B metric tons resource) + Pebble East (~3.4B metric tons resource) in advanced exploration.
• That is massive geological optionality.
On Colorado:
• Colorado does have copper mineralization and exploration-stage projects.
• But current USGS production concentration remains outside Colorado (Arizona dominates U.S. production, with output also from states like Utah, New Mexico, Nevada, Montana, Michigan, Missouri, and Alaska).
So yes, domestic resource potential exists.
But markets price delivered metal, not just mapped ore bodies.
WHY THIS MATTERS FOR ES/SPX TRADERS (NOT JUST METALS TRADERS)
If copper stays tight while AI capex keeps accelerating, the second-order effects matter for equities:
1) CAPEX pressure and margin dispersion
Companies with high electrical infra exposure and weak procurement strategy can see margin pressure.
2) Utility + grid equipment bottlenecks
Transformer, switchgear, and interconnection queues become timing risk on AI rollout narratives.
3) Inflation persistence in “strategic inputs”
If copper remains structurally bid, it can keep parts of the industrial complex sticky even during growth slowdowns.
4) Regime clue
Copper strength + power-infrastructure urgency can reinforce a “hard-asset + electrification” leadership regime versus duration-sensitive narratives.
TRADER CHECKLIST
✅ Track copper term structure and exchange inventories (LME/COMEX/SHFE) for stress signals.
✅ Watch data-center utility interconnection headlines as leading indicators of power bottlenecks.
✅ Separate short-term tariff/arbitrage noise from long-term copper intensity trend.
✅ Treat sharp copper pullbacks as “thesis test” moments, not automatic trend breaks.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The market is gradually realizing that AI isn’t just software and semis.
It’s transmission lines, substations, cooling loops, and massive power reliability requirements.
And all roads keep running through copper.
If demand is accelerating toward 2030 while mine supply and permitting remain slow, this setup can stay tighter for longer than consensus expects.
Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets.
Ryan Bailey
VICI Trading Solutions