S&P Edge (ES) Daily Trade Plan: NFP Volatility & The SPX Discrepancy
A detailed ES & VIX plan for Jan 9th, breaking down the 6990 Gamma Flip, the 6977.75 resistance barometer, and the “Make It or Break It” spot.
Scheduled News
Options Volatility Levels
Morning everyone. Today is January 9th, 2026, it is Friday, and we have a big day on deck.
Yesterday, if you were a trade plan follower, you made out like a bandit. We had the 6942 support for the long and the 6974 short for the High of the Day, giving you both the top and the bottom of the day.
We come into the day with Red Tag news this morning: Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, and Unemployment Rate at 8:30 AM. It is sure to be a big event, so expect volatility. We also have more Red Tag news at 10:00 AM (Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations). Today is jam-packed, so please be careful.
A Note on Today’s Market:
Gamma: We are in Negative Gamma. The Gamma Flip level has shifted all the way to 6990.00. Dealers are hedging short, but money can be made both ways (as long as we are below this level, a squeeze will ensue above).
Range: Expected range is 46.75 points. We moved 20, leaving 25 points in the tank above/below ON High/Low.
Context: Price traversed in a 20-point range last night. We popped at the close, playing the 6977.75 Weekly / 6978.75 4-Hour (Upper end of fat resistance), which took us down 25 points. However, they held the mid-50s (Prev Weekly VAH). With Such a tight rage we have to be ready for an explosive move.
Condition: We are in a pivotal “Make It or Break It” spot, less than 30 points from All-Time Highs.
🧠 Current Market Context
The SPX Discrepancy:
There is a slight discrepancy you should be aware of. ES technically lost on the 4-Hour (losing the move to the high), though we cleared that high last night by playing 6978.75. However, SPX has not lost on any timeframe (1H, 4H, Daily, Weekly) and even played an untested 4hr/Daily level at the lows at 6901 yesterday. Given that SPX is the true index, I defer to this, leading me to believe we could possibly push higher. However, the SPX upper range matches the ES daily levels we need to be cognizant of.
