S&P Edge (ES) Daily Trade Plan: Balancing Before FOMC & The 6872.00 Wall
A detailed ES & VIX plan for Dec 9th, breaking down the fragile balance at 6857.00, the 6872.00 resistance wall, and the “fragile” support at 6832.75.
Scheduled News:
Options VOL Levels:
Good morning everyone. Today is December 9th.
We are now balancing in a tight range as the world prepares for FOMC tomorrow. Yesterday, even though we are still traversing to the upside, we have very little support right now to play for longs, which makes this an extremely fragile and difficult area to trade in.
After our massive push up of 350 points, we have been balancing sideways for over two and a half weeks. We now sit directly at the 6857.00 Monthly/Daily level (yesterday’s Point of Control) and the Weekly Point of Control at 6852.00. We are smack in the middle of a multi-week balance. Our edge is at the edges, and right now, we are in the middle.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: Tentative Red Tag news pre-market (ADP Employment). 10:00 AM ET: JOLTS Job Openings (expect a shake).
Range: Expected range is 51.6 points. We have moved 23 points. There is approximately 30 points left in the tank from the overnight high or low.
Volume: Relative volume is up 11%.
Strategy: Be extremely patient. Today could be relatively slow unless we push into the edges.
🧠 Current Market Context
Technically, the 4-Hour timeframe lost support yesterday for the move to the current high. This is a big deal and shows technical weakness and a possible chance we could continue to push lower. We have not lost on the Daily timeframe, but the 4-Hour loss gives us a small downside lean.
The profile has excess up to 6884.00 and down to 6821.00, meaning the market has inefficiencies both higher and lower, leading us to believe we could go either direction.
