Welcome back, everybody. It’s time for the Weekend Review, and we are coming off an insane week. Last week, the trade plans were incredible. Nailed every move, every turn. Substack subscribers got paid, and I am so excited to present this week to you guys.
We are coming off of a massive squeeze that we talked about—our Weekly and Daily level at 6761 and 6765. They played it on Thursday evening in Globex and then squeezed 200 points on Friday. I warned everyone after this trade played in the overnight session that we should experience a squeeze, and that is exactly what happened.
A Note on This Week’s Market:
Gamma: We are still in Negative Gamma territory. The dealers have not shifted from the All-Time Highs for approximately two weeks. This means they are looking for more potential downside (for now), but it guarantees extreme volatility (50-200 point moves).
VIX: Broken beneath the $20.00 handle. Currently sitting at 17.44 support, giving the indices a nice tailwind.
Trend: We swept the leg to the All-Time High on SPX, but the Daily never closed below, signaling significant strength. However, the Daily on ES has still not gained, giving us mixed signals.
Context: We are stuck in a massive balance area.
🧠 Current Market Context
The SPX Shoulder:
Technically speaking, SPX never lost the leg. We could continue to move all the way back up into our higher untested areas at 6966 (Massive Weekly) through 6985. We have a nice little shoulder here.
The ES “Duster”:
On ES, we are right back at the 6964.50 pivot. Above us, we have the 7004.50 Untested Daily. This is the shoulder where support was lost when we cascaded last week. If we get up here and close back beneath 6964, this thing is a duster—it’s over with.
🚨 VIX Analysis: The $20 Handle
We discussed that our big $20.00 pivot was everything for determining downside or relief. On Friday, they broke beneath it.
The Pivot: $20.00 Handle / 20.38 (Weekly).
Current State: Sitting at 17.44 (Monthly). This looks like VIX is giving the ES quite a bit of relief.
Analysis: As long as we are below $20.00, indices have a tailwind. 17.44 is the next major area to monitor for Above/Below.
🎯 Detailed Actionable Trade Plan (ES Futures)
We have swept the lows, but we have not gained on the Daily timeframe. Be patient.
🔴 Key Resistance Zones & Setups
The “Watch” Level: 6977.75
6977.75 (Weekly).
Context: I cannot decide if this is untested or not.
Actionable Setup: Monitor for a reaction. The play is to see if 6977.75 plays and gets back below the 6964.50 pivot. If so, we will crumble back down.
The “Duster” / Shoulder: 7004.00 - 7004.50
7004.50 (Untested Daily), 7004.00 (Weekly).
Context: Shoulder. This is where support was lost. Absolutely 100% untested.
Actionable Setup: I would look for a reaction here no question. If we push up here and get back below 6964.00, this thing is a duster.
Alternative: If this doesn’t send us cascading, we will likely make new All-Time Highs.
Momentum Shift: 6964.00
6964.00 (Monthly/Daily Pivot).
Context: Getting above this puts momentum in favor of the Bulls.
🔵 Key Support Zones & Setups
The Only True Buy: 6912.75
6912.75 (Untested Daily).
Context: This is my first and only true buy spot.
Actionable Setup: If we pull back into this right now, look for a hold and continuation up.
Momentum Shift: 6903.00
6903.00 (Weekly).
Context: Anything below 6903.00 really shifts momentum in favor of the Bears.
Bad Below: 6880.00
6880.00 (Weekly / 4-Hour).
Context: Below 6880.00, this gets shifty.
Actionable Setup: We are using this as a pivot.
Top-Down 4-Hour: 6867.00
6867.00 (Untested 4-Hour).
Actionable Setup: If price comes down here, look for it to get back above 6880.00 for continuation.
The Danger Zone: 6824.75
6824.75 (4-Hour).
Actionable Setup: Be cautious buying under here. At this point, we are back underneath major support and momentum has shifted to the Bears.
📌 Cheat Sheet – Key Levels Recap
🧠 Final Thoughts
We have called every spot—left, right, up, and down. Almost the highs and lows every single day. I hope this helps you out considerably.
Keep in mind, we are still in Negative Gamma territory. This means dealers are still looking for potential downside, but as you can see, it creates extreme volatility. Expect moves of 80 to 200 points. This doesn’t last—maybe 30% of the year. This is when careers are made.
Stick to the plan, play the levels, follow the guidance, and be patient.
Until next time—trade smart, stay prepared, and together we will conquer these markets!
Ryan Bailey, VICI Trading Solutions.
