🎙️ Quick Note from Me

For this week’s review, I’ve decided to switch back to analyzing the continuous contract instead of the front month. I noticed that I was missing some crucial structure in prior weeks, and it became clear that the continuous view offers a more accurate read—especially around some of these deeper levels. As a result, some levels have shifted slightly from what we’ve previously discussed, so please update your charts accordingly.

Now, let’s get into what I’m seeing this week…

🧠 Overview

We just came off a sharp 100-point bounce from a major level at 5785.25, which ties directly into the leg leading to the all-time high. The structure is still holding, but we’re at a pivotal juncture—either this is the low, or we dip slightly further before launching higher. There are clear support and resistance pivots forming, and I’ve laid them out below with exact zones for both continuation and failure scenarios.

🔺 Upside Resistance / Target Zones

5782.50 – Weekly open; reclaiming this flips short-term structure
5808.50 – Monthly resistance; price is currently reacting here
5847.00 – Heavy 4H resistance zone
5864.75 – Weekly + critical value area level
5904 – 5912 – Big spot: single prints + weekly level + breakout area
5923.00 – 5930.00 – Next key resistance (4H + ETH daily)
5946.00 – Final untested 4H resistance before higher continuation

🔻 Key Support Zones (Buy or Break Areas)

5774.00 – Untested 4H leg from Friday (watch for bounce or failed breakdown reclaim)
5753.00 – Critical daily; still technically untested
5711.00 – Daily level
5688.75 – 5703.50 – Untested 4H zone + gap area
5674.00 – Must-hold; breakdown risk increases under here

🎯 Actionable Trade Scenarios

✅ Bullish Case – Holding Support

If 5774 holds → reclaim 5782.50 → look for move toward 5808.50 and ultimately 5847–5864
Break above 5864.75 = opens up 5904–5912 target zone

⚠️ Neutral-to-Bearish Pullback

Failure to hold 5774 could lead to a sweep of 5753, or even a dip into 5711–5703
This is a deep buy zone; strong reaction here would still favor continuation higher

🚫 Breakdown Scenario

Sustained move below 5674 = high risk of complete structure break
Not in the forecast for now, but this would shift trend bias significantly

📋 Cheat Sheet – Key Levels for the Week

🔺 Resistance Targets

5782.50 – Weekly reclaim level
5808.50 – Monthly resistance
5847.00 – Major 4H resistance
5864.75 – Weekly + breakout trigger
5904–5912 – Key breakout continuation zone
5923–5930 – 4H + ETH daily
5946.00 – Final resistance level

🔻 Support Zones

5774.00 – Friday 4H leg
5753.00 – Untested daily
5711.00 – Daily
5703.50 / 5688.75 – Gap + 4H untested
5674.00 – Last defense level

🧠 Final Thoughts

Structure is still intact and the bounce off 5785.25 was aggressive. As long as buyers continue to hold above the 5753–5774 cluster and reclaim 5782.50, we’re looking at a potential retest of the 5860+ zone and beyond. If we drop into the lower support zones, I’ll be watching closely for failed breakdown setups into 5711–5688, which could offer some of the best risk/reward opportunities of the week.

For live updates, real-time trade ideas, and more context on how I’m playing it —
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Trade smart, stay alert — and let’s conquer the week.
Ryan Bailey
VICI Trading Solutions

Ryan Bailey’s S&P Edge

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