S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Value Area Acceptance & The 6681 Ceiling
A detailed ES & VIX plan for March 25th, breaking down the 6681.50 daily ceiling, the 6633.25 daily floor, and the VIX 24.70 above/below.
SCHEDULED NEWS:
NO RED TAG EVENTS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Wednesday, March 25th, and yesterday’s trade plan was spot on again. We played the 6575.75 Daily after we swept the overnight lows, coming right into our Put Wall, causing a squeeze that sent us up well over a hundred points into the current riding. It was a fantastic day for Substack subscribers as many people banked in on this beautiful long while we have been cautiously still pointing to the upside from a low time frame perspective. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of this insane opportunity — yesterday was a glorious day. Now, we have another chance to conquer the markets, so let’s get into it.
As price has drifted in the overnight session, we have essentially maintained price between our significant Daily at 6633.25 and our ceiling from yesterday at 6681.50. Price has been contained in this area, moving back and forth in a 46-point range as we continue to step up from our progression off Monday’s squeeze of over 250 points. It is still my belief that we are high time frame pointed down, low time frame pointed up, as we are traversing to the higher end of the leg potentially to test the highest most untested. We find ourselves sandwiched between two significant levels that are essentially make-it-or-break-it spots for progression — the massive 6633.25 Daily that kept the lid on things yesterday and has now acted as support, and the massive overhead resistance at 6681.50 Daily, which played yesterday to the tick for a smack of over 40 points, and once again in the overnight session for a 30-point smack. As we continue to sit right at the 200-day moving average, today’s move will be critical.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news available today. President Trump is speaking at 7:20 PM ET this evening. However, do not throw caution out the window as we are in a negative volatility regime and geopolitical events continue to develop behind the scenes.
Volume: Relative Volume is at -1.6%, meaning it is fairly flat. This gives us the assumption that we may be able to count on our expected range. The ranges have been massive lately, and given that we have only moved 46 points in the overnight session, we are actually coiled fairly tight.
Range: Expected range of 129 points. We have already moved 47 points in the overnight session. Taking relative volume into account, we have approximately 80 points left in the tank today either above or below the overnight highs or lows. We should expect a move in either direction.
Gamma: We are still in Negative Gamma territory. Dealers are hedging to the downside. This causes extreme volatility and price can move in both directions seamlessly. Squeezes can be imminent and violent — be prepared for action in both directions.
Trend: Short-term bullish, long-term bearish. We are still pointed down on the Weekly, Daily, and 4-Hour time frames. We have not gained support on any time frame. However, we tend to retrace the larger move down, all while gaining no support, only to test the highest untested and to smack once again. Currently we are finding stability and looking potentially bullish from a low time frame intraday perspective while remaining bearish from a high time frame perspective.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Step-Up Progression & Double Value Area Acceptance
We are currently distributing in a sideways fashion between two massive pivots — the 6633.25 Daily floor and the 6681.50 Daily ceiling. This is our third consecutive step higher since Monday’s 250-point squeeze off the 6525.00 swing low. Price is coiled tight in this range, and today’s breakout in either direction will be critical. As long as our levels provide stability for this potential up move, we remain short-term bullish. However, the high time frame still points us firmly to the downside — we have gained no support on the Daily, Weekly, or 4-Hour, and as long as the daily close remains below 6787.75, we will continue to have massive suppression to the downside from a high time frame perspective.
