S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Two Days of Squeeze & Still No Support Gained
A detailed ES & VIX plan for March 5th, breaking down the 6857.25 monthly momentum pivot, the 6903 weekly shift level, and the VIX 21.74 breakout pivot.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Thursday, March 5th, and we come off another absolutely ridiculous day in the trade plans where everything couldn’t have been more perfect. Our subscribers absolutely banked — we called the short off of 6857.25 that took us down to our support at 6815.75 and told subscribers that as long as this holds we have an upside bias. That is exactly what happened as price broke out above 6857 paying insane dividends all the way up to 6884, which then induced a nice 20-point short, only to pop up and play our significant Daily and options level at 6893.25 at the high for another 25 points. We essentially captured every single move yesterday — congratulations to all those who took advantage, and we appreciate all the love and commentary. We look forward to continuing to bring you the hits.
As we come into the day, we find ourselves directly back in the range that we have so dreaded for some time. However, we continue to make lower lows and lower highs as price popped up and tested the highs of our leg that we called out yesterday at 6:00 in the morning. Last night the market sold off pretty intense with a 60-point overnight range, and we find ourselves sitting directly above our major Monthly pivot once again at 6857.25. We tested our Daily at 6893.25 in the overnight session and are right back in this massive 6-week range as our Weekly point of control continues to act as a magnet bringing us all the way back to value.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: Red Tag news this morning — Unemployment Claims at 8:30 AM. This is sure to get a shake as this is always an important event. Look for market-moving volatility around this time.
Volume: Relative Volume is elevated at +20%. Using our relative calculation with the expected range, we could see approximately 60 points above or below the overnight high or low — giving us plenty of room for a move we can capture.
Range: Expected range of 107 points. We have already moved 60 points in the overnight session. Taking relative volume into account, we still have approximately 60 points left above or below the overnight highs or lows.
Gamma: We are still in Negative Gamma territory. The Gamma flip level is well above at 7025, putting it at all-time highs. Dealers continue to hedge to the downside — anything can happen and we need to be prepared.
Trend: Downside lean. We have not gained support on the Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, or 1-Hour timeframe. The massive two-day move has accomplished nothing structurally — all we did was pop up higher and test the highest untested portion of the leg. Lower lows and lower highs continue. Without support being gained, we maintain our downside lean.
