Ryan Bailey's S&P Edge

Ryan Bailey's S&P Edge

S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: The 9 O’Clock Four-Hour Close & The 7600 Must-Hold

A detailed ES & VIX plan for September 10th, breaking down the 7626.50 last support standing, the 7683.25 previous weekly Point of Control pivot, and the VIX 17.44 Monthly midpoint pivot.

Sep 10, 2026
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Good morning, everybody. Today is Thursday, September 10th. Yesterday was a fairly muted day, as we balanced sideways most of the day and had a small push down while buyers and sellers were extremely muted coming off the holiday. As we start to regain our footing and traction here, we are currently moving down in the overnight session, setting up for some interesting action today.

A Note on Today’s Market:

  • News: We have Red Tag news at 8:30 — Core PPI, PPI month-over-month, and Unemployment Claims. It is for sure going to be a big one this morning, and we can expect a shake without a doubt.

  • Volume: Relative Volume is pretty flat this morning, coming into the day at only a positive 5%, meaning we will more than likely get our expected range today.

  • Range: Expected range of 63.75 points. We have currently moved 37.5 points, leaving us approximately 25.25 points above or below the overnight high or low.

  • Trend: Downside lean. We are still technically pointed up on the Daily time frame, but just barely — it almost lost yesterday on ES by a few ticks on the cash session, and it ultimately has lost support on the ETH side. We are down on the 4-Hour and 1-Hour time frames, telling us that we are currently pointing to the downside and could potentially sweep the leg lows on our current move to the high.

🧠 Current Market Context

Extreme Volatility Into a Red Tag Print

We are setting up for some extreme volatility today, as this move down could bring us into our major support — and if that doesn’t hold, then the indices will find themselves in major trouble.

ES finds itself at the time of this writing down 14 points, as we continue to drift lower in the overnight session, with price unable to gain on the lower time frames. We essentially held yesterday at the close the previous all-time high, which we talked about at 7648.75. This is a massive above/below pivot for us today, because the previous all-time high was clearly significant for a reason, and we will continue to mark this and keep it on our chart as a significant above/below level. It will be that once again today, as we actually have massive resistance directly above this area that we want to keep track of.

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