S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: The 7414 Breakdown & The Last-Stand 7368 Cluster
A detailed ES & VIX plan for June 26th, breaking down the 7414.00 broken pivot, the 7368.25 last-stand daily cluster, and the VIX 19.42 above/below.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
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Morning everyone. Today is Friday, June 26th, and it is Free Alpha Friday — we’ll be streaming across all three social platforms today: YouTube, X, and Substack, so welcome to everyone joining us. Yesterday was an absolutely phenomenal day. We called the short off the ceiling at 7492.50, and the very fragile support sent us right down below Wednesday’s low — only for us to turn around and play the long given in the plan on the sweep of 7404.00, which paid well over 80 points and handed us a fantastic one-and-done victory before 10:15 a.m. Eastern. A spectacular display of trade-plan amazingness, and so many people banked serious profits. The inner circle is absolutely crushing it, and I want to thank everyone who reached out — including those who showed up to last night’s webinar to share how impressed they were. I appreciate it, and I look forward to delivering more hits day after day.
As we come into the day, ES is down 39 points at the time of this writing after a massive overnight flush. We’ve broken below the level we’ve defended all week, and we are now sitting in a very different posture than the last few mornings.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news today. We do have revised consumer sentiment and revised inflation expectations at 10:00 a.m., but that is NOT a market-moving event — just be aware of the timing for a possible pocket of volatility. With geopolitical events on the rise and Trump active on his phone and Twitter, it’s always hard to fully predict the tape.
Volume: Relative Volume is +10%. Combined with the overnight move, that leaves us only about 13 points in the tank above or below the overnight high or low — but in an extreme Negative Gamma regime, that range can absolutely get busted.
Range: Expected range of 101 points — and we’ve already moved 97 points in the overnight session, soaking up nearly the entire expected range. With a move this size already in the books, further extension is genuinely up in the air.
Gamma: We are in an EXTREME Negative Gamma regime with a very heavy put skew — so heavy that it’s overriding the call side and making it extremely difficult to even pick out call walls. Both retail and institutions are clearly hedged to the downside. Expect expanded, volatile ranges that cut both ways: bigger profits, but also bigger stops. Be careful.
Trend: We are down on ALL time frames — the Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour. That, plus the options skew, gives us a clear downside lean from both a process and a positioning standpoint. We are now below 7414.00, below the 7410.00 Weekly, and well below 7404.50, hovering directly at the last serious high-time-frame cluster. The lean is down.
🧠 Current Market Context
The 7414 Breakdown & The Last Serious Floor
Things look fairly grim for the bulls right now. I have hammered all week on how significant the 7414.00 level is and how the bulls would do everything in their power to defend it — and they did, in every single cash session since Tuesday. But the overnight session finally broke 7414.00, and we are now trading below it. That, combined with losing our major supports in a Negative Gamma regime, gives us an extreme reason to lean lower, and we’ll be watching this level like a hawk. We currently sit and hover directly at the significant daily cluster at 7368.25 and 7374.75 — and this is the important part: this is essentially the last serious high-time-frame area before we just dump and potentially move down another 350 to 400 points. With no Red Tag news, the bulls will try everything to cling to life and we may see some back and forth, but below 7414.00 the downside lean is real.
