S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: The Make-It-Or-Break-It Pocket & The 7414 Last Stand
A detailed ES & VIX plan for June 23rd, breaking down the 7414 last-stand support, the 7458.50 major pivot, and the VIX 19.42 midpoint.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
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Morning everyone. Today is Tuesday, June 23rd, and we called off another ridiculous day in the trade plan yesterday. We caught the high short from 7596.00 that was called out in the Weekend Review, brought it down for 50 points, and then came down to settle and sit perfectly at the low of the day at 7527.00, our significant Daily. We traded this live in the Discord room so members could watch us execute with flawless precision and pull 50 points out of this market for a solid one-and-done by 10:30 a.m. Then we called the move below 7527.00 — in both the post-market breakdown and the Week in Review — which took us directly into our current spot down in the 7425.00 area, where we will certainly figure out what the bulls intend to do today. This has been an incredible display of trade plan perfection and an absolute testament to the process, and I appreciate every single one of you who has put their faith in the plans.
As we come into the morning, we have drifted lower in the overnight session by over 127 points, dropping us right into the pocket we have discussed multiple times — in the streams, the post-market breakdown, and the Weekend Review — essentially nailing this entire move and leading us directly into our massive make-it-or-break-it spot.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news to speak of, other than Flash Manufacturing PMI — which is not a Red Tag event but comes after the bell at 9:45 a.m. this morning, so be aware of it.
Volume: Relative Volume is extremely raised at 98.2%, meaning we have a potential 100-point extension on our already massive 113-point range for the day. This opens up volatility for more direction above or below the overnight highs or lows.
Range: Expected range of 113 points. We have already moved over 127 points in the overnight session, exceeding the expected range by 15 points — and with the elevated relative volume, the day can stretch considerably further.
Gamma: We are in Negative Gamma territory, but I have no gamma flip to speak of today. We are skewed heavily to the put side, though we do have a fairly even distribution of calls and puts separated beautifully by our massive daily pivot area at 7455.00.
Trend: Down hard. We drifted 127-plus points overnight into our make-it-or-break-it pocket, and we remain suppressed below the 7458.50 Daily. The bias stays lower until the bulls prove they can hold the 7414.00 area.
🧠 Current Market Context
Sitting in the Make-It-Or-Break-It Pocket
We have moved directly into the June 7 weekly Value Area High at 7446.75, which coincides with the weekly Point of Control at 7433.00 — a target we have called out multiple times, and we have arrived. I said yesterday that this was a magnet pulling us lower, and that is exactly what it did. We are now sitting in a very important pocket and a serious inflection point: this will make all the difference as to whether we continue lower by hundreds and hundreds of points, or hold this area and push back higher. Our major pivot is the 7458.50 Daily — above it shifts momentum back to the bulls, below it keeps us in the favor of the bears. Our real last stand is the 7414.00 Daily, and below 7404.50 we are catching a falling knife.
