S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: The Weekly Gap Fill & The 7527 Make-or-Break
A detailed ES & VIX plan for June 30th, breaking down the 7527.00 prime short, the 7492.50 midpoint pivot, and the VIX 17.44 monthly support.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
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Morning everyone. Today is Tuesday, June 30th — the last day of the month — and we come in fresh off an incredible day in the trade plan yesterday, an absolutely phenomenal display of trade-plan excellence. We caught the short from 7487.00 right at the open and took it down 85 points directly to what we called out as the low of the day in the 7414.00 / 7410.00 area, which held and catapulted us all the way back up to new highs — sending us well over 100 points off yesterday’s low at the time of this writing. Just another example of trade-plan perfection playing out at its finest. Congratulations to everyone who took advantage; so much money was made, and the inner circle was absolutely flooded as Team VICI extracted money from this market on both moves and finished the day early. I appreciate all the shout-outs and direct messages — now we get to do it all over again.
As we come into the morning, we’ve continued to grind higher in the overnight session, climbing back above some of our significant daily support and setting up what could be a major make-it-or-break-it day right into overhead resistance.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news today. We do have consumer confidence and JOLTS job openings at 10:00 a.m. — not a Red Tag event, but a news event regardless, so keep it on the radar for a pocket of volatility.
Volume: We’re in an extreme Negative Gamma regime with the gamma flip well above 7625, so dealers are still hedging to the downside. As you’ve seen lately, as long as we’re in negative gamma we get those wild 80-to-100-point swings multiple times in each direction — very attractive trading, and it won’t last forever, so take advantage.
Range: Expected range of 91 points, and we’ve only moved about 35 points overnight, leaving roughly 55.5 points above or below the overnight high or low. That small overnight range means we likely have a substantial move ahead of us today — up, down, or both.
Gamma: Negative Gamma with the flip well above 7625 — dealers hedging lower, two-way volatility expected regardless of the light news slate.
Trend: We are up on the 4-Hour and 1-Hour but have still NOT gained on the Daily. That keeps me relatively short-side biased from a high-time-frame standpoint, but intraday bullish into certain resistance areas as we’ve climbed above critical levels and shifted momentum to the bulls. We’re now filling the weekly TPO gap — likely our major target today — which puts us directly in line with major resistance.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Weekly Gap Fill into Major Resistance
Yesterday we played 7414.00 and propelled higher to a solid daily close above 7492.50 — the big momentum-shift pivot that acted as resistance four separate times. That daily close above it tells me we could drift higher into the next untested level at 7527.00. We currently find ourselves holding above 7492.50 but below 7527.00, with a massive gap that needs to be filled in the cash session, taking us all the way up to 7525.00. Here’s why I’m preaching caution: one, VIX is sitting at its extreme monthly level and already getting a slight reaction pre-market; two, we are still down on the Daily even though we’re pointed up on the 1-Hour and 4-Hour — and the high time frame rules, so the Daily is what I default to. That keeps me technically leaning downside, and we could get an extreme push down. That does not mean we can’t squeeze a little higher to test some important levels, only to then collapse back down.
