SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
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Good morning, everybody. Today is Friday, August 28th, and we come off another unbelievable day in the trade plan. Yesterday literally could not have been a more spectacular display of trade plan amazingness. We had the smack that was led from Nvidia earnings pre-market, which took us all the way up to 7742 with our Daily at 7737.75, and that led us down all the way to 7714.25. It then allowed us to catch the low of the day at 7704 for the sweep play, and take us all the way back to our 7752.25 Daily and our 7755 gamma flip level that we called out as our upper target. We literally got the low and the high of the day, as well as being able to capture the retest mid-afternoon at 7722.
It was a ridiculous points fest yesterday as Team Vici conquered the markets, capitalizing on almost every single turn. Congratulations to all subscribers who took advantage — even one trade yesterday out of the many we provided could have easily made your day, if not your week.
As we come into the morning, we find ourselves balancing in the overnight session in a very tight range of 20.25 points.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: We do have Red Tag news today, but everything comes after the market opens. We have our new Fed Chair Warsh speaking at 10:00 a.m., the Preliminary Benchmark Payroll Revisions at 10:00 a.m., and Revised Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations at 10:00 a.m. as well. This all goes into day two of the Jackson Hole Symposium, which is where the world’s greatest minds who essentially control our monetary system get together and decide our fate. This is an extremely important event that happens once a year and lasts all week, and it will cause volatility.
Volume: We have a Relative Volume of negative 33%, meaning we could come in today with a muted move and a total potential range of only 33.5 points. Considering we’ve already moved 20.25 points, that leaves us approximately 13 to 14 points left in the tank above or below the overnight highs or lows. That seems like an awfully muted expectation — but with the Fed Chair on the mic this afternoon and Jackson Hole underway, I do believe we could potentially see our full range today.
Range: Expected range of 48.5 points. We have moved approximately 20.25 points, leaving us approximately 28 points above or below the overnight highs or lows for our expected range.
Gamma: We actually had a massive gamma shift flip yesterday, as the massive upside movement caused the dealers to switch their positioning. Yesterday the high of the day was a smack of the gamma flip level at 7755. Now that we are continuing to push up in the overnight session, dealers have moved their gamma flip level all the way down to 7685, putting us back into a position of Positive Gamma as we start to gain on time frames. We now have options dealers hedging us back to the upside.
Trend: We are currently pointed up on the 4-Hour and 1-Hour time frames, and have still not gained on the Daily for ES. This means we could make money in both directions right now, as we still have our higher time frame pointed down and our lower time frames pointed up.
🧠 Current Market Context
The SPX/ES Divergence & The Bull/Bear Line
The Bulls had an opportunity in ES yesterday and unfortunately failed to make it happen on the Daily. However, given the fact that we had an extremely strong 4-Hour close yesterday, that leads me to believe we could potentially move higher. Our ultimate bull/bear line is the 7752.25 Daily we’ve talked about many times over, as this is right in line with the Previous Weekly Value Area High at 7746, and it is truly the big level we need to push above — not only on our Weekly TPO, but really from a candlestick structure standpoint — if we want to break out and go up toward the 7800 area.
