S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: The 7573 Line in the Sand & The 7599 Breakout Battle
A detailed ES & VIX plan for July 10th, breaking down the 7573.25 daily must-hold, the 7599.25 weekly breakout hurdle, and the VIX 16.20 midpoint pivot.
SCHEDULED NEWS
No Scheduled News
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Friday, July 10th, and yesterday was an incredible display of trade plan perfection once again. As we knew, being above 7525.00 gave us the bullish lean, and it did exactly that one hundred percent — holding this pivot all through the evening and two separate retests. In the morning we held the 7527.00 Daily, sending us all the way up to our untested Daily at 7596.50 for an incredible long of over 70 points. We were able to catch the rotation to both the downside and the upside yesterday, leaving Team Beechy full and fat with points. Our Inner Circle scoreboard members lit up the board — even on a tough tape, Team Beechy continues to conquer the markets. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of the trade plan, as it paid sincere dividends and left members sitting pretty for another ridiculous day.
As we come into the morning, price rested in a sideways fashion all night above our significant Daily at 7573.25, firmly securing its spot overnight and accepting value at this higher range. We now find ourselves coiled tight, sandwiched between 7573.25 and 7599.25 in a tight 27-point range — telling us we are wound up for a breakout, in which direction we are not yet sure.
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A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news events to speak of today. Continue to monitor for any political or macro developments that could create intraday shakes.
Volume: Relative Volume is at -9.5%, meaning slightly fewer active participants than usual. This mutes our expected move from roughly 52.5 points down to approximately 47 points above or below the overnight high or low.
Range: Expected range of 76.25 points. We have already moved 23.75 points in the overnight session, leaving us approximately 52.5 points (muted to about 47 points with relative volume) left above or below the overnight highs or lows.
Gamma: We remain in Negative Gamma territory. The gamma skew is still pointed to the downside with the flip level migrating down to 7610.00, and dealers continue to hedge to the downside — keeping some pressure behind our downside lean.
Trend: Bullish lean. SPX has regained on both the Daily and 4-Hour and is now pointed up on all timeframes — and since SPX is our true lead, we default to it. ES is up on the 1-Hour and 4-Hour but has NOT yet regained the Daily (it needs a close above 7596.50). Above 7573.25 we lean bullish, but keep the mixed ES read in mind.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Coiled Range & The SPX/ES Daily Divergence
We come off yesterday’s magnificent rally into the highest untested Daily we had at 7596.50, after which price moved in a sideways fashion all night, resting above our significant Daily at 7573.25. This is the massive Daily we worked on early last week to get above — the one that continued to reject over and over. After going much lower on Wednesday and finding new buyers, we find ourselves back above this Daily once again, firmly securing its spot overnight. Right now the ES is poised for bullishness: we have gained on the 4-Hour and the 1-Hour, but we have not yet gained on the Daily timeframe. A solid close above 7573.25 yesterday was a huge indication that we will more than likely lean to the upside today.
