S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: The 7560 Spill & The Battle for the 7463 Sweep
A detailed ES & VIX plan for July 23rd, breaking down the 7507.00 untested pivot, the 7463.50 must-hold Daily, and the VIX 17.44 above/below.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Ignore ES - Levels Compressed Due to Data Error / NQ is OK
Morning everyone. Today is Thursday, July 23rd, and we come off another banging day in the trade plan. We essentially nailed the low of the day with the sweep of yesterday’s low into 7504.00, which sparked a squeeze all morning that ran us all the way up to sweep yesterday’s high — only to get smacked right at the 7555.00 bearish pivot and hit for 30 points. Team Vici captured both directions and made plenty of cash. Congratulations to all those who took the long and the short early. Price then came back down, played our significant 4-Hour at 7529.00, propelled all the way back to new highs, and fell once again, leading us down this morning well over 45 points at the time of this writing. What a spectacular display of trade plan amazingness — a glorious day of money-making for all who stayed patient and followed the plan.
As we come into the morning, we are down 45 points and pointed lower. Yesterday was the true poke into the 7560.00 level — the ultimate Bull/Bear pivot I have been hammering on for some time — which marked the high and has since led us down well over 70 points for an amazing display of accuracy. We have continued to play two Dailies on the way down, both the 7534.00 and the 7524.00, and we now find ourselves back below our significant 7507.00 Daily, which is our current leg to the high. We also had a very interesting anomaly at yesterday’s close: VIX spiked over 14%, all the way up to 19.42 into the bell. Many people didn’t notice it, but I tweeted about it — things like this don’t happen by accident. This morning, VIX continues to grind higher as we hold above our 17.44 bearish midpoint pivot.
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A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news to speak of. We do have Unemployment Claims at 8:30 AM ET — not a Red Tag event, but we will monitor it for volatility as it’s a significant economic indicator. On top of that, the US and China are back to talking tariffs, which is sure to create headlines and volatility. Watch for Trump tweets — there is never a lack of volatility-driving news in this market right now.
Volume: No specific relative volume figure was called out this morning. Given the negative gamma regime and the tariff/geopolitical headlines, expect active participation and two-way rotation despite the clear downside lean.
Range: No formal expected-range number today, but we are already down 45 points on ES in the overnight session and remain in Negative Gamma. Expect expanded ranges and volatility in both directions — be prepared for rotation and let the edges come to you.
Gamma: We remain in Negative Gamma territory. Dealers continue to hedge the market to the short side, putting a lot of pressure on the Bulls as they prepare for more downside.
Trend: Downside lean, and a strong one. We are down on the Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour timeframes — only the Weekly holds us in balance. My bearish conviction thesis remains fully intact, and I have been pointing down since late last week. I remain inherently bearish below 7560.00, which was played to perfection yesterday.
🧠 Current Market Context
The 7560 Spill & The Break of 7507
We have been pointed down on all timeframes for well over a week and a half, and my major Bull/Bear pivot at 7560.00 was the line the entire time. Yesterday, price poked directly into 7560.00, marked the high, and spilled well over 70 points — exactly the scenario I have been insinuating through all of these squeezes that were doing nothing but shaking out the loose hands. This is a very troubling area for the Bulls. We have played two Dailies on the way down — the 7534.00 and the 7524.00 — and we have now broken back below our significant 7507.00 Daily, our current leg to the high. As of this writing we are pushing straight through the 7485.25 Daily and 7484.00 4-Hour as if they aren’t even there, because we have not gained on any timeframe. We have lost the 4-Hour, lost the Daily, and lost the 1-Hour.
