S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: The 7458 Make-It-Or-Break-It Ceiling
A detailed ES & VIX plan for June 12th, breaking down the 7458.50 make-it-or-break-it ceiling, the 7414 momentum shift pivot, and the VIX 18.19 floor.
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Morning everyone. Today is Friday, June 12th, and we come off another unbelievable day in the trade plan. Once again we called the lows at 7264.00, talking about how this was the area that absolutely needed to hold — and indeed it did, propelling us all the way to 7419.00 for an unreal 150-plus point pop. The other big thing yesterday was that we called the squeeze itself: everybody was still looking lower, yet we anticipated that we had bottomed for the time being and had the entire subscriber list on watch for the squeeze — it was right there in our trade plan title, and it ultimately happened. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of yesterday’s amazing plan.
As we continued to move up, we closed directly underneath 7414.00, setting up a beautiful buy at 7374.00. The London session had different plans, however, playing our 7374.75 Daily with absolute precision at the 3 a.m. London open and pelting us up 75 points into the major area I have talked about for two weeks now — our major Daily leg down at 7458.50. We now find ourselves in an extremely interesting predicament: up 41 points at the time of this writing, sitting directly above the 7414.00 Daily and directly below the 7458.50 Daily, sandwiched in a major resistance area that will truly be the make-it-or-break-it for us today.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news to speak of today. We do have news at 10:00 a.m. — preliminary consumer sentiment and inflation expectations — which is not Red Tag, but is sure to get a shake. Be aware that Fridays have a tendency to be large days even without Red Tag news, so we will certainly want to expect some volatility.
Volume: Relative Volume has increased at +15%, which could potentially expand our range today and put us at approximately 70 to 75 points left in today’s range given that calculation.
Range: Expected range of 142.5 points today — an unbelievable range. We have already moved 76 points in the overnight session, leaving us approximately 66 points left in the tank above or below the overnight highs or lows. This is a fairly substantial range, and we need to be prepared for a move.
Gamma: We sit in Negative Gamma territory once again with the gamma flip level above us, meaning dealers are hedging to the downside. Notably, the flip level has moved down from 7600.00 to 7550.00 — significant considering our last and major untested Daily resistance sits at 7542.00. Dealers are essentially hedging their downside positions right at our highest, most untested Daily.
Trend: We are up on the 1-Hour and 4-Hour and starting to regain on those smaller timeframes, but we have technically NOT gained on the Daily — and the Daily is always in control. We remain suppressed until we get a Daily close above 7458.50. Sandwiched between 7414.00 and 7458.50, direction is difficult to gauge inside a multi-day balance.
🧠 Current Market Context
Sandwiched at the Ceiling After the Squeeze
Once again we find ourselves in a very interesting position. We played our significant Daily at 7374.75, which catapulted us up over 75 points overnight, and we now sit above our 7414.00 Daily and below our 7458.50 Daily — directly sandwiched in a troublesome area. We are regaining on the smaller timeframes, including the 4-Hour and 1-Hour, which tells us we are trying to bottom out and start to move higher. But we still have not gained on the Daily, and in order for the indices to truly gain, we must have a Daily close above 7458.50. That would put momentum back in the favor of the bulls and get us pointed up on all timeframes again. Just because we got the pop does not mean we have accomplished anything substantial — technically, we are still down on the Daily.
