S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: The Four-Day Balance & The FOMC Coil
A detailed ES & VIX plan for July 29th, breaking down the 7458.50 major momentum shift pivot, the 7412.25 Weekly that is holding up the entire market, and the VIX 18.41 midpoint above/below.
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Good morning. Today is Wednesday, July 29th, and we come off another unbelievable day in the trade plan. We had the 7458.50 Daily as our big momentum shift pivot, leading us lower as long as we were below it — and yesterday at the open that proved fruitful indeed. 7458.50 provided insane resistance, taking us all the way down over 45 points to sweep the overnight low, which was a perfect call in the trade plan. Price then projected right back up to play our 7484.00 4-Hour and our 7485.00 Daily for a perfect high of the day. We gave you the midpoint pivot, the low of the day, and the high of the day — all in the trade plan.
Congratulations to all those who took advantage of this amazing plan yesterday, as it proved fruitful for many. I saw the scoreboard light up in the Inner Circle and received many thanks from individuals who are subscribers, and we look forward to bringing you another fantastic trade plan today as we conquer these markets.
Coming into this morning, we have had a fairly volatile evening as price moved around significantly, bouncing above our 7458.00 significant momentum pivot. We sit here bouncing between the 7485.00 Daily and the 7458.00 Daily, still in balance from yesterday. Looking at the TPO, we find ourselves once again with a ridiculous four-day balance, and the overnight session leaves us dead in the middle of yesterday’s value and sitting right at yesterday’s point of control. Essentially, since last Thursday, we have gone absolutely nowhere. All we have done is drift back and forth as price accepts value while we wait for this massive rate announcement today — which is the first rate announcement by our new FOMC head. This was actually expected, as we talked about on the Week in Review and on Monday.
Before we get into it, I want to put a disclosure out there: I personally do not day trade. I have always lost more money than I have made, and so I now have a rule to take one or two trades before twelve noon and then shut the computer off and come back the next day after the dust has settled. This has always provided me with the best results, and without telling you what to do, I would suggest taking advantage of that advice — especially today.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news pre-market, but we have a very large Red Tag announcement today. FOMC rate decision at 2:00 p.m., followed by the press conference at 2:30 p.m. It is sure to be an extremely volatile afternoon. This morning will more than likely be muted, so the idea is to get our money this morning before noon and get out of the way — let the algos wrestle with the FOMC announcement.
Volume: Relative Volume is at +3%, meaning relative volume is flat today. We should be expecting a full range of at least 86 points, and there is a high probability we exceed that with FOMC, as this is always an outlier day and has a tendency to meet or exceed expectations on a regular basis.
Range: Expected range of 86.5 points. We have already moved 62.5 points, leaving us approximately 24 points left in the tank above or below the overnight highs or lows.
Gamma: We are still in a Negative Gamma regime. Our gamma flip level sits well above us at all-time highs at 7650.00, telling us dealers are still hedging to the downside — leaving the door open for expanded ranges, increased volatility, and a significant amount of action and money to be made in both directions.
Trend: Downside lean. We are still pointed down on all time frames except the Weekly, with the Daily, 4-Hour and 1-Hour time frames still pointing us lower.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Four-Day Balance & The Middle-of-the-Range Problem
The ES once again maintains a very bearish lean to the downside. We have not gained on the Daily, 4-Hour or 1-Hour time frames. However, we continue to stay propped up from the Weekly at 7412.25. We are directly back in the middle of a four-day balance, and looking at the overnight price action, it remains in balance. We are currently holding directly at the major momentum shift pivot at 7458.50 — literally sitting on top of it right now as we speak — and that level goes in combination with the 7455.00 Previous Weekly Value Area Low.
