S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: The Untested Support Void & The 7599 Line in the Sand

A detailed ES & VIX plan for July 16th, breaking down the 7596.50/7599.25 bull-bear line, the 7586.75 four-hour close, and the VIX 16.20 midpoint pivot.

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Morning everyone. Today is Thursday, July 16th, and once again the trade plan knocked it out of the park. We had the significant 4-Hour at 7626.00 that I told everybody I was expecting a reaction from, working in combination with the 7622.50 Daily — and that was indeed the high of the day. The 4-Hour at 7626.00 played absolutely perfect, bringing us back into the 7599.00 area for a beautiful pop, only to retest 7626.00 once more and then come screaming down below our significant pivot into the Daily at 7573.25, leaving the day balanced as the end of yesterday’s cash session propelled us right back to 7626.00 to finish green on the day.

The amount of insane volatility we had off both the highs and the lows yesterday paid VICI members, Inner Circle members, and our Discord and Substack subscribers immensely right off the open. Congratulations to all of those who took that early short and got the one-and-done — it was a glorious day to make some money and then go out and touch the grass. That is what’s beautiful about a professional trade plan: we look for the setups no matter when they come, we execute, and we conquer the markets.

Coming into today, price bounced off the Daily at 7573.25 at yesterday’s lows and moved up all evening in the overnight session, clearing yesterday’s high in the Globex and popping above 7628.00 for a brief moment — only to retreat all the way back down after failing to gain the 4-Hour at 7626.00, bringing us right back into our very significant momentum shift pivot at 7599.25 / 7596.50 that we now need to monitor. At the time of this writing we sit at 7590.00, below that pivot, and this is going to be a huge spot for us once again.

A Note on Today’s Market:

• News: No Red Tag news to speak of today. However, we have an abundance of medium news before the bell at 8:30 — Core Retail Sales, Philly Fed Manufacturing, Retail Sales, and Unemployment Claims. At 9:00 p.m. tonight we have Trump speaking. None of these signify a Red Tag market-changing event, but they are on the schedule and we monitor for volatility around these times. More importantly, we have geopolitical news: Iran is warning the United States that it will retaliate against Trump’s strike threats, which means we will more than likely have more war-based volatility. This has caused abrupt market reactions for our members before, so hedge yourselves, use proper stops, and prepare for these tweet-based news reactions accordingly — we never know when these could happen. Given the significance of this news, we need to expect anything coming into the morning.

• Volume: Relative Volume is at approximately +10%, meaning we have average participants here and could potentially get a boost to our total range on the day of approximately 10%.

• Range: Total expected range of 71.5 points. We have already moved a total of 51.25 points, leaving us approximately 20.25 points above or below the overnight highs or lows.

• Gamma: The negative gamma strike is still above us. Our gamma flip level sits at 7615.00, keeping us in a Negative Gamma regime. As you have probably noticed, we have slowly walked this gamma flip level down from 7650.00 all the way to 7615.00 this morning, continuing to apply pressure on the indices. This leaves the gamma flip in an interesting position — a pop above our significant resistance at the highs at 7628.00 would put us back in Positive Gamma territory, but as long as we stay below it, the pressure is being applied to the downside from market makers hedging their positions.

• Trend: We are currently up on all time frames — Daily, 4-Hour, and Weekly. However, we sit below the 7596.50 Daily and the 7599.25 Weekly, and we have no true untested support left to play. Underneath 7596.50 / 7599.25 we have downside pressure applied to us; above it we start to get our upside lean back.

🧠 Current Market Context

The Untested Support Void & The 9 a.m. Four-Hour Close

It is going to be an interesting day. With war volatility on the horizon and our lack of untested support, this could turn into an extremely interesting day. Currently we are up on all time frames — both the Daily, the 4-Hour, and the Weekly. However, with this being said, we find ourselves in an interesting predicament, because we do not have any true untested support left to actually play. As of right now, we have nothing to play for untested support for well over 100 points. We will be relying on above-and-below action off our significant levels and potential sweeps to confirm whether buyers will re-engage or whether we will continue to drift lower.