SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
📬 Check Your Spam Folder! Whitelist rbailey@vicitradingsolutions.com and info@vicitradingsolutions.com, and drag any VICI email into your Primary inbox so every morning plan lands where it belongs.
🚀 SIGN UP FOR THE NEW AND IMPROVED SPX MORNING BRIEF. It’s free — but seats are limited and they will fill up fast. Get your seat now: https://go.vicitradingsolutions.com/spx-brief
Good morning, everyone. Today is Thursday, October 1st — the first of the month. We are finally, officially out of the summertime doldrums from a time period standpoint, so hopefully from here on out we can start to expect a little more volatility. As many of you know, we have been getting some pretty massive ranges in the overnight session, including last night, which gave us a total range of over 63 points.
Yesterday we had a phenomenal day in the trade plan. 7718.50 was our low of the day, which propelled us above our massive momentum pivot from the trade plan title at 7753.50. Price maintained that all morning and rocketed right up into our previous Weekly Point of Control at 7776.00 — the level we’ve talked about for some time as the major decisive momentum shift pivot. It came into play once again yesterday, as price failed to push through the previous Weekly Point of Control, came down, and swept to make new lows once again, inching closer and closer to our big major support.
In the overnight session, price was able to reclaim the low that was swept during the cash session and squeezed back well over 55 points, cleaning up all the massive inefficiencies left during yesterday’s news mayhem — only to put us right back, smack in the middle of balance.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news to speak of. We do have Unemployment Claims at 8:30 a.m. pre-market, and at 10:00 a.m. we have FOMC member Waller speaking and the ISM Manufacturing PMI. None of these are Red Tag events, but keep them on the calendar, as they could still give us a potential shake.
Volume: Relative Volume is increased by well over 70% this morning. Using a rough calculation of 50%, that could add potentially 35 points on top of today’s range, giving us approximately 51 points left today above or below the overnight highs or lows. This is an approximation, and relative volume will more than likely simmer down as we come into the open, so keep an eye on it.
Range: Projected range of 71 points. We have currently moved 62.75 points, leaving approximately 8.25 points in the tank before the relative volume adjustment.
Gamma: We are still in Negative Gamma territory, as the gamma flip stays at 7850 this morning. Dealers are hedging to the downside, with the potential to open up increased volatility and increased ranges.
Trend: We are now down on the Daily time frame, as it lost at yesterday’s close, giving us a momentum shift to the downside. We have also lost the 1-Hour. However, the 4-Hour has continued to barely hold on and has not lost as of right now. That leaves us in a very precarious position — and with a mixed review on our time frames, we have the ability to look for trades in both directions.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Middle of the Balance, With Little Edge
As we sit here this morning, we find ourselves directly in the middle of a seven-day balance, once again located extremely close to a cluster of previous days’ Points of Control, essentially leaving us with very little edge to speak of. We’ve had a push above 7753.50, and ultimately massive profit taking around 7776.00, and now we are right back in the middle.
We have been balancing sideways all morning in a massive area we’ve essentially been sitting in since Wednesday of last week, making it extremely difficult to pick a direction as we continue to grind sideways and lower while sweeping the lows and looking for buyers. We continue to make new lows, meaning we are still progressing lower. But we have some massive support underneath us, and a little bit of resistance above that will truly make it or break it for us if price is going to continue higher this morning.
