S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: The 7412 Untested Weekly & The Battle for a Friday Bounce
A detailed ES & VIX plan for July 24th, breaking down the 7412.25 untested Weekly, the 7443.25 Globex buy, and the VIX 18.41 new midpoint pivot.
SCHEDULED NEWS
No Scheduled News
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Friday, July 24th, and it is a glorious day to be alive and a glorious day to be a Vici S&P Edge Substack subscriber. We had an absolute showstopper yesterday, catching the high of the day short at 7485.00 and riding it down all morning to the absolute low at 7412.00 for precision entries and exits live in the Inner Circle. Team Vici cleaned up on this amazing move — a perfect example of how you only need one trade per day to keep the nine-to-five away. Congratulations to all those who grabbed the trade while we had it in hand; it was a glorious day in ES land.
As we come into the morning, price cascaded down over 90 points before yesterday’s open, letting us open beneath our main area at 7485.00 and below the swing low at 7468.00. By the bell we got an immediate squeeze right back into our major resistance at 7485.00 — a Daily and 4-Hour level — which played with surgical precision before coming all the way down to 7412.00, our massive Weekly pivot where everything goes wrong below. That move technically still kept us in balance: we’ve come out of the tight range we held all week, but we are not out of the woods yet. Overnight we’ve drifted sideways, holding the 7412.25 Weekly intact and potentially accumulating down here at the lows, and we’ve pushed back up to our July 7th swing low at 7468.50, which is currently acting as resistance. There are also inefficiencies higher up that will likely need to get cleaned up at some point.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No scheduled Red Tag news to speak of this morning.
Volume: Relative Volume is at -15%. Factoring that in, we can expect to move roughly 36 points above or below the overnight high or low today — plenty of room to make some money on a Friday.
Range: Expected range of 77.75 points. We have already moved 35.25 points overnight, leaving approximately 42 points in the tank above or below the overnight highs or lows before the volume adjustment — closer to 36 points after it.
Gamma: We are in Negative Gamma volatility once again. Dealers are hedging to the downside, which opens the door to expanded ranges, increased volatility, and money to be made in both directions.
Trend: We are down on the Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour timeframes and would need quite a move up to shift this downside lean. That said, the hold of the untested 7412.25 Weekly is significant, so we must expect a move in either direction today.
🧠 Current Market Context
The 7412 Untested Weekly Discovery
Yesterday’s 7412.25 Weekly played with precision, and there’s an important correction to make: I originally had this level marked as tested-but-significant, but after further research it was in fact untested — and that is a very large difference. An untested Weekly can provide a significant reaction, which is exactly what we’ve already seen, and it can potentially carry us higher today before we come back lower. This is why the level held with such accuracy and why we’ve balanced all night in the evening session. It matters enormously, because below 7412.25 we have no untested Weekly support — and no significant tested Weekly support either — until roughly 7000.00. In other words, below 7412.25 we could fall well over 400 points from a Weekly standpoint. This is the lower end of our balance range and the line the bulls must hold to keep price propped up. I could easily see this area holding today, and I would not be surprised to get a relief pop even though every timeframe is pointed down. I have one significant level I’m looking to buy to keep price propped up — after that, it’s all downside from there.
