S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: The Double Inside Day & The 7477 Topside Pivot
A detailed ES & VIX plan for June 9th, breaking down the 7477 topside pivot, the 7414 momentum shift support, and the VIX 17.44 floor.
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Morning everyone. Today is Tuesday, June 9th, and the trade plan was spot on once again. We called the 7414.00 momentum pivot, and as price reclaimed it Monday morning we continued to push and grind higher throughout the day — only to come down and close perfectly at that exact price, 7414.00, our large momentum shift pivot on the Daily timeframe. The plan called it out perfectly. On top of that, our statistical data told us we’d close up on the day by approximately 0.75% on the intraday, and at the peak we got exactly that — the data came through once again. Congratulations to all those who took advantage.
As we sit here this morning, we’ve been balancing sideways all night, still yet to determine a direction after Friday’s big fall as we digest that massive push down. We’re in a strange spot: Friday was a massive day, and yesterday was an inside day that stayed within Friday’s range. Right now we sit directly at yesterday’s point of control, in the middle of yesterday’s range and value area, which is also the middle of Friday’s range and value area — making this a double inside day. The probability of moving outside today’s range is extremely high; whether that’s up or down is what the levels will tell us. Let’s break it down.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news today — it should be a fairly silent session unless we get a geopolitical headline. Trump is already talking about Israel and Iran this morning, so stay on the lookout for volatility from that direction.
Volume: Relative Volume is -11%, meaning participants are slightly muted, but nothing too exaggerated — we could still see our full range for the day.
Range: Expected range of 103 points, with a current overnight range of 65 points, leaving us approximately 40 points in the tank above or below the overnight high. As a double inside day, the odds of breaking out of today’s range are extremely high.
Gamma: The gamma flip has flipped on us — we are now in a Negative Gamma environment. Yesterday we were positive; today the flip level has jumped all the way up to 7600.00, meaning dealers are hedging to the downside this morning.
Trend: We are down on the Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour timeframes, up only on the Weekly. We’ve lost support across the lower timeframes, which gives us a clear downside lean. That said, balancing yesterday left us very little resistance to play, so patience is key.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Double Inside Day & The Weekly Balance
We find ourselves inside not only Friday’s range but sitting directly at the point of control for yesterday’s range and value area — making this an extremely difficult spot to pick a direction. On the weekly profile, we’re parked in a massive four-week balance area, right at the big three-week point of control we’ve discussed many times, which carries humongous volume. So the back-and-forth in here as we fill out the area we skimmed through on Friday is no surprise. The statistics tell us we won’t stay inside yesterday’s range for long — we’ll more than likely get a move one direction or the other. We are down on the 4-Hour, 1-Hour, and Daily, which keeps me pointed to the downside, and I’m looking for a sweep below 7354.25 at some point. With no Red Tag news, though, it could be a slow and grindy day inside this multi-day, multi-week balance.
