S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: The Post-FOMC Bounce & The 7520 Gamma Flip
A detailed ES & VIX plan for June 18th, breaking down the 7527.50 major support pivot, the 7583 upside resistance, and the VIX 17.44 monthly pivot.
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Morning everyone. Today is Thursday, June 18th, and we come off FOMC day yesterday. With a new Fed chair on board, they discussed rate adjustments and the state of the economy but did not move rates at all — and the simple fact of bringing in a new chair since Powell has been quite the event and caused some volatility. Yesterday we were down over 100 points at the peak, only to rebound sharply in the overnight session, leaving us up 55 points at the time of this writing.
We are still very much in rollover, and things are a little mysterious on the ES this morning, leaving us in a precarious position — so we will default to our process and lean into SPX for guidance. The big structural shift to be aware of is gamma: the flip level has moved all the way up to sit directly beneath us at 7520.00. That is significant, because the closer the flip gets to our current strike, the more fragile our position becomes. We are up on all timeframes thanks to the massive rollover gap and Sunday’s news, but with a holiday tomorrow and one more day of rollover shenanigans, we need to be extremely choosy.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news to speak of today. We do have Philly Fed manufacturing and unemployment claims at 8:30 — not Red Tag, but relatively important, so look for some pre-market action. Keep in mind we also have a holiday tomorrow.
Volume: Relative Volume reads -13% today. With no Red Tag news, things could be slightly muted, but coming off FOMC volatility we should still expect a little something.
Range: Expected range of 116.5 points. We have moved 64 points in the overnight session, leaving approximately 52 points in the tank above or below the overnight high or low.
Gamma: We are in a Positive Gamma regime, with the flip level having moved all the way up to 7520.00, directly below us. This is a significant shift — being this close to our current strike leaves us fragile, and dealers are hedging to the upside above it. Lose 7520.00 and they flip to the downside fast.
Trend: Up on all timeframes as of right now, driven by the massive rollover gap and Sunday’s news. That said, the ES picture is mysterious and precarious in the middle of rollover, so lean on SPX for cleaner guidance.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Post-FOMC Bounce on a Fragile Gamma Footing
After a wild FOMC session, we find ourselves up on all timeframes, but the footing is fragile. The ES is in a very interesting position: the gamma flip has moved up to 7520.00, so dealers are now hedging us to the upside, and our major support above/below is the 7527.50 Daily — a level we have talked about for weeks and that proved important again last week. Being above or below 7527.50 truly shifts momentum into the favor of the bulls or the bears. This is the same level as 7501.00 on SPX that I continue to harp about. As long as we stay above 7527.50, we continue to move higher; we have a 4-Hour at 7531.00 playing right now with a Put Wall at 7531.00, and as price has pushed higher it has reclaimed the 7542.00 Daily, giving us an early indication that price could continue up.
