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Morning everyone. Today is Friday, October 16th, and I am proud to announce that yesterday was one of the most incredible calls we have had in the trade plan yet. Weeks in advance, we called the low on SPX at 7666.90 and the ES pocket at 7735.00 — and wouldn’t you know it, it played to perfection. Price came screaming down on Wednesday, held the lows on Thursday, and propelled us up beautifully throughout Thursday and on into the evening session. On ES, we captured the short off the 7753.50 resistance to take us lower, only to catch the bid and squeeze back above that very same pivot from yesterday’s trade plan title — squeezing us well over 50 points higher and straight into our big major resistance areas. It was a glorious day. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of this move.
As we come into the morning, we are still drifting higher, up 10 points at the time of this writing, and we have pushed directly into the massive 7803.00 Weekly. This level is absolutely tested, but it sits in line with our Previous Weekly Value Area Low at 7803.00, which makes it a huge spot. Whether we can continue this push higher, or fail here and come lower to retest, is the question of the day — and this pivot is going to answer it.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news to speak of today. We just came through two major volatile days on Wednesday and Thursday, and now the market is digesting that move.
Volume: Relative Volume is at -5%, which tells us we are pretty much on par with our average participants.
Range: Expected range of 67 points. We have already moved 34.75 points, leaving us approximately 32.25 points above or below the overnight highs or lows. I have no reason to believe this range will not be met today — it has been a very volatile week with some very serious news the market still needs to digest.
Gamma: We are now in Positive Gamma territory. The gamma flip level has moved down to 7790.00, sitting directly below us at the time of this writing. Dealers have positioned the pressure to continue to the upside, but this flip will be very important in determining whether dealers need to flip to the short side or continue hedging for the long.
Trend: Still down on the Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour timeframes. Yesterday’s move, as significant as it was, has not gained on any significant timeframe, so our process technically points to the downside. However, given the significant area we came off of yesterday, I am looking for rotations in both directions today.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Leg-In Defense & The 7803 Breakout Test
Yesterday we came off a significant area that we have called for some time — the big make-it-or-break-it for us. We knew this massive leg in had to hold if the Bulls were going to continue their progression higher, and they played this area without question. ES maintained the 7718.50 low and reclaimed the 7735.00 Daily that we preached about for weeks, only to pop much higher. However, as significant as that move was, it still has not gained on any significant timeframe, which means we defer to our process. Not gaining on any timeframe tells me we could be in for more downside — but knowing the area we came off of, there is a real chance we squeeze higher if the Bulls want to maintain those lows.
