S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: The Put-Skew Squeeze & The 7412 Weekly Wall
A detailed ES & VIX plan for July 30th, breaking down the 7412.25 Weekly wall we are approaching, the 7313 weekly value area magnet below, and the VIX 18.41 midpoint above/below.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
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Good morning everyone. Today is Thursday, July 30th. Yesterday we had FOMC and, believe it or not, the trade plan still played perfect — proving that the VICI Impact Protocol system you know and love is damn near algo proof. I know we have a rule that we take FOMC and the afternoon session off, but even the morning session was fantastic, with a big break below 7458.00 that paid over 90 points for the beautiful call at the open. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of the pre-FOMC action — and of course, to those who couldn’t resist, we had a fantastic short from the 7481.00 4-Hour that we called in the Inner Circle and that paid well over 150 points by the end of the day. Just a miraculous display of trade plan perfection on the ES. Not to mention the gorgeous smack from 7447.50 on SPX that led us directly down to our main target to close at 7312.75, which was ultimately our major downside Daily target from the plan. Everything worked out perfectly and we could not have been happier with the way things unfolded.
As we come into the morning, we find ourselves holding that Daily at 7312.74 on SPX, just like I talked about in the post-market breakdown, and on ES holding the major 4-Hour at 7336.50 — that was the big and main support I had on the 4-Hour time frame underneath 7412.25. That level in fact did hold all evening, and we are up 45 points at the time of this writing. We ended up popping from the 7336.50 4-Hour and reclaiming the massive Weekly and Daily swing low at 7357.25, only to push higher into our 7380.75 Daily and come back down to retest 7357.25 and catapult us back up above 7380.75 to sit at a very important spot directly below our 7412.25 Weekly.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: We have major Red Tag news this morning before pre-market. Advanced GDP at 8:30 a.m. as well as Core PCE — guaranteed to provide a massive reaction. These are two huge numbers: one involves our country’s productivity and the other involves our country’s inflation. They go hand in hand, and they land right on the tail of FOMC yesterday after a firm rate announcement for this quarter.
Volume: Relative Volume is at an increased rate this morning of +29.3%, meaning we could get approximately a 30% larger move than already calculated — expanding our remaining range from 25 points to somewhere around 32.5 to 33 points above or below the overnight highs or lows. That gives us plenty of range today to make major profits if we stick to and follow the plan.
Range: Expected range of 96.5 points. We have currently moved 71 points, leaving us approximately 25.5 points left in the tank above or below the overnight highs or lows before the relative volume adjustment above.
Gamma: We have dealers hedging to the downside in a massive Negative Gamma push, as we have been experiencing for weeks now. The negative gamma is starting to show its teeth — dealers hedging to the downside, but also providing expanded ranges and volatility in both directions, as we’ve already seen this morning with a pop of over 50 points off the lows.
Trend: Extremely bearish. We are still currently down on all time frames. Yesterday we officially closed well below the 7412.25 Weekly and the 7380.75 Daily, leading us to an extremely bearish look coming into this session.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Options Volatility Cap & The One-Sided Put Skew
Two things from the data this morning that I want everyone to understand before we touch a single level.
First, based on our options volatility levels, you will notice we have already touched the second standard deviation to the upside for ES, which means we have a 90% chance of not closing below 7280.00 to the downside today. Even though we are currently looking for shorts, understand the potential range and follow-through that riding the trend to the downside can provide — and know where we should be taking profits and how far this move could realistically go. The probability of an all-out flush today is low.
