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Good morning, everyone. Today is Tuesday, September 29th. Yesterday was a miraculous day in the trade plan, as we were able to pinpoint our true and only long, located on SPX at 7666.99. This level played with absolute precision, popping us up over 65 points. We used it in confluence with our 7734.25 Daily on ES to capture the perfect long of the day — which was indeed the low of the day and the biggest move.
I congratulate all those who were patient yesterday, who stuck to the plan, had conviction, and were able to see this trade through. I know that I and many members of the inner circle were able to cash in on this trade after almost a two-hour hold. Patience was the trade here, and it absolutely served us well. We are going to do it all again today.
Last night, price essentially balanced in a range underneath our 7753.50 Daily, which has been important for us all week — until this morning, when we had some Iran news that popped the market up, leaving us up approximately 16.5 points at the time of this writing. That news was timely, as it has set up a beautiful play for us this morning.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news to speak of. We only have news after the open at 10:00 a.m. — Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings. Neither is a Red Tag event, but they are post-open, so we should look for some volatility around them.
Volume: Relative Volume is positive 16.5%, meaning we could see our range come in around 26 to 27 points above or below the overnight highs or lows today.
Range: Expected range of 77 points. We have moved a total of 54.75 points, leaving an approximate range of 22.25 points above or below the overnight highs or lows before the volume adjustment.
Gamma: We are still in Negative Gamma territory, with the gamma flip level sitting at all-time highs at 7860 this morning. This is very interesting considering we are less than 100 points from all-time highs, yet the dealers still consider this negative gamma — meaning they are hedging to the downside, with the potential for expanded ranges and trades in both directions. Money can be made both ways today, but as a team we will be leaning to the long side until proven otherwise.
Trend: Up on all time frames. On ES, the Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour are all pointed to the upside, giving us firm confirmation of exactly which direction we should be looking today. SPX is up on all time frames as well.
🧠 Current Market Context
Up on Everything, Stuck in the Middle of Balance
We once again find ourselves pointed up on all time frames, even though we’ve been in a massive balance area since last Wednesday. At this point it’s a five-day balance, and we are sitting directly in the middle of it — nearly right back at last week’s Point of Control and this week’s Point of Control as well. We’re going to use our process to understand which direction to lean, and right now that process says we are looking for longs. But we have a clearly defined area where momentum can shift to the downside.
We are balancing once again in last week’s value area and accepting the lows, just as predicted. We knew the six-week composite Value Area High at 7731.25 was a true must-hold. We pushed below it slightly last night, reclaimed it this morning, and squeezed higher — putting us directly back in the middle of balance. We are still looking for more upside on ES, but we have a clearly defined area where things go south in our immediate area.
