S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: The Bearish Momentum Shift & The 6883 Breakdown
A detailed ES & VIX plan for Feb 5th, breaking down the massive volatility, the VIX $20 breakout, and the critical support at 6824.75.
Scheduled News
Options Volatility Levels
Good morning everyone. Today is February 5th. We are coming off an insane day yesterday off of our trade plans where every single one of our members banked an insane amount of money. We called straight from the trade plan title the major resistance at 6964.50 being the lid on things as well as the VIX with our 17.50 being our major pivot. Both of these played out exactly right, and our 6964.50 major resistance level sent this down over 100 points yesterday for an insane score, sweeping the previous day’s low exactly as anticipated and producing an 80 point pop! Congratulations to all those who took advantage; I know people are still riding the high from this amazing day.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: 8:30 AM Unemployment Claims, 10:00 AM JOLTS Job Openings (Red Tag), 7:00 PM President Trump Speaks.
Gamma: We are in Negative Gamma. The Gamma Flip is well above 7000. Dealers are hedging extremely short; expect volatility and potential moves both ways.
Volume: Relative Volume spiked up at over 45%.
Range: Expected range of 102 points. We have moved 75 points in the overnight, leaving approximately 25 points left in the tank (though the volume spike could add another 50 points).
Context: Futures are moving down significantly right now. Momentum has shifted insanely hard in favor of the Bears below 6883 and 6903.
🧠 Current Market Context
The VIX Breakout:
VIX is extremely elevated in the overnight session. We have popped above our major $20 resistance handle and are pushing higher. As long as we are above the $20 handle on VIX, we are going to see extreme pressure on the indices. If we pull back underneath this area, indices would get some relief.
The Momentum Shift:
We are well underneath our significant Weekly at 6883, where momentum shifts insanely hard in favor of the Bears. The 6903 Weekly has held us up for a very long time, and now that we are below it, this is without a doubt a short until we are back above 6923 and truly 6964 with confidence.
