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Morning everyone. Today is Friday, October 30th — the last day of the month — and we come off another unbelievable day in the trade plan. Yesterday, the prophecy was finally foretold. We have been talking about being bearish since last Sunday, and Team Vici members maintained their bearish stance all week, knowing that we had not gained on any timeframe. The FOMC announcement caused us to pop up and play our highest untested level, only to keep price from gaining on the S&P 500 — giving us the premonition that we were coming down, against all odds and against everyone betting against us. Once again, our process rings true and has shown unbelievable results for our trade plan subscribers.
As we come into the morning, we are down 88 points at the time of this writing. The market has fallen extremely hard after massive earnings news yesterday, where the big tech companies all missed on their reports. This was easily seen in the charts, as the S&P 500 was indicating that we would eventually come down and make new lows from last Friday underneath 7644.50, ultimately still looking for our big major target below 7575.00. This was talked about well over a week ago, and after the massive 200-point squeeze, everyone told us we were wrong. Yet we continued to maintain our discipline as our process continued to point us in the right direction, and once again, as we wake up, we were proven right. Congratulations to all those who stuck with the trade plan and with me and defied all odds, only to have the results work out once again. This is indeed trade plan perfection, as we have all seen many times now. Price has continued to traverse lower all night as we are still seeking new lows underneath Friday’s low, ultimately targeting 7644.50.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news to speak of, but we do have the Employment Cost Index at 8:30 a.m. pre-market. This is not a Red Tag news event, but it is a news event indeed, and given that we are still pointed down on all timeframes, it could give us a little volatility and increase the follow-through to make our new leg lows.
Volume: Relative Volume is 15%] at the time of this writing.
Range: Expected range of 73 Points today. We are already down 88 points at the time of this writing, as price has continued to traverse lower all night. We are down 49 Points in our total range calculation leaving us 24 points left for the day above or below the overnight highs or lows
Gamma: We are in Negative Gamma this morning, as our gamma flip level has moved all the way down to 7744.00. This means the dealers are pressing their positions lower, expanding volatility, giving us increased ranges, and hedging their positions to the downside. The closer the gamma strike gets to our current location, the stronger the will becomes for the market makers to keep price suppressed.
Trend: Down. We are still down on the Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour timeframes, all still pointed much lower. We are still looking for new lows underneath Friday’s low, targeting the Daily at 7644.50 and ultimately our high-timeframe target below 7575.00, given well over a week in advance.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Leg-to-Leg Progression Plays True
We have talked multiple times about how this pop all the way higher was simply a natural progression as we go from one leg into the other. As everyone can now see, this is exactly what happens as our process plays true. As we hold the lows in the overnight session, we are right back to where we started on Monday, and price continues to point to the downside. We have massive resistance overhead that we’ll be looking to play for progression to the downside.
It is a glorious day for ES and a glorious day for Team Vici. Many, including members of our inner circle, could not wrap their heads around yesterday’s price action and believed we could end up squeezing higher into the election. Once again, our process proves true. I’ve tried to maintain the discipline here and let everybody know that without a gain, we only have one choice, and that is to make new lows. Not to brag or toot my own horn, but I gotta say: I told you so. I love to see everything play out perfectly, which it currently is. As we sit at the lows at 7661.25, we are holding this last major support area, the last lowest untested 1-Hour we talked about at 7663.25. This area is holding currently, but in my opinion, we will ultimately break.
