S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: The Overnight Sweep & Squeeze Watch into Core PPI
A detailed ES & VIX plan for June 11th, breaking down the 7374.75 momentum pivot, the 7458.50 high-probability short, and the VIX 20.78 weekly barometer.
SCHEDULED NEWS
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Morning everyone. Today is Thursday, June 11th, and yesterday was another spectacular display in the trade plan. We called our 7374.75 momentum shift pivot, price barely poked above and then failed, and proceeded to grind below it for the remainder of the day — bringing us down well over 140 points. I truly appreciate every one of you sending DMs thanking me for such accurate trade plans; the process has proven true time and time again, and congratulations on the amazing execution.
Now it’s time to do it all again. As we came into the morning, we actually swept Tuesday’s low in the overnight session — exactly as we discussed in the post-market breakdown just hours before. We swept 7250.00 last night and have already catapulted up to 7340.00 for a stunning 90-point rally, leaving us up 53 points at the time of this writing. After such a significant sweep, we need to be prepared for a potential squeeze today, because we have no other areas of untested support beneath us. The pocket between 7264.50 and 7225.00 is the major story here — this is our last and final leg that took us up to the all-time highs, and even though the whole area is tested, its significance is exactly why it doesn’t surprise me that we got swept overnight and propelled right back higher.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: We have major Red Tag news this morning at 8:00 a.m. pre-market — a significant inflation print (Core PPI). We need to let the dust settle and figure out what we’re going to play before getting excited, as this can move everything around the open.
Volume: Relative Volume is estimated at +12%, giving us a slight increase to our potential range today. Nothing extreme, but enough to add a little room on top of an already-large projected range.
Range: Expected range of 144 points — a massive range. We have already moved 106 points in the overnight session, leaving us approximately 38 points left above or below the overnight highs or lows. With the placement of the overnight high and overnight low, there is still a significant amount of movement left in today’s range.
Gamma: We remain in a Negative Gamma environment with dealers hedging to the downside. The GEX levels are skewed heavily to the downside today — there are a lot of puts being played and very little on the call side, which made it difficult to read the Call Walls. The flip side of that: if we do start to squeeze, it could be violent.
Trend: Downside lean, still pointed down on all timeframes. We have not gained on the 1-Hour, 4-Hour, or Daily — they all still point down. That said, last night’s sweep and the 100-plus point overnight bounce tell me there is some relative strength here, so we are on squeeze watch even while the bias stays short.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Post-Sweep Squeeze Watch
That sweep last night in ES was very important — I spoke about it in the Discord room right after it happened, noting it could potentially carry us all the way up to 7456.00. We are still absolutely pointed down on all timeframes, having lost on the Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour, but the sweep underneath the 7250s and the hold of the pocket around 7225.00 is a major area of support. With negative gamma and a GEX profile this skewed to the put side, if we start to squeeze it could be violent. I do not know that we will squeeze — but after four red days in a row, ES is due for a bounce, and even a 120-point bounce from here would leave us very much bearish. We are intraday traders, so we will keep using our above/below levels to gauge momentum shifts and market context.
