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Morning everyone. Today is Wednesday, November 4th, and we had the midterm elections last night — what an epic ride! Price came all the way down into our 7507.75 Weekly target, pushed down 10 more points to find the bottom, and then propelled all the way back up, leaving us up well over 67 points at the time of this writing. Such an incredible V-shaped recovery last night after a pullback into the significant spot where we determined we would find liquidity. Congratulations to all those who traded last night, as this was an incredible play in the overnight session. Yesterday, we also had an epic trade as we were able to short the 7623.00 area and bring it down, which ended up paying our subscribers mad dividends. That was proven in yesterday’s post-market breakdown, with tons of inner circle members putting up fat points on the board for another huge win for Team Vici.
As we come into the morning, we have propelled back over our 7623.00 spot, which we talked about in the post-market breakdown as our very large TPO breakout area. We are still sitting at the overnight highs as price digests this massive overnight move, and we have lots of geopolitical issues and headlines to deal with. One important revision this morning: we have a new gamma flip level from our calculations. Our ES-based gamma flip is now located at 7684.00. Our original gamma flip at 7825.00 still remains true, but we want to monitor this second flip level, as this is truly where we’ll see a squeeze — which makes sense, as it is located close to the upper end of our resistance area.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news to speak of. We only have ISM Services PMI at 10:00 a.m. after the market opens, which could potentially give us some strong volatility. This is not a Red Tag news event, so we just need to be aware of the timing, not the news itself. We will also more than likely get Trump tweeting today, as I’m sure the Republicans and Trump in general will have much to say after the election, so we need to be careful of headline volatility.
Volume: We come into the morning with a huge Relative Volume of +90%. My anticipation is that this does not stay elevated like this, but using our relative calculation, it gives us a total of approximately 214 points for the day.
Range: Expected range of 113.5 points, and we have already moved 197.75 points — a blowout on our expected daily range. Subtracting 197.75 points from the 214 points our relative volume gives us, we have approximately 16.25 points left above or below the overnight highs or lows, meaning we could still potentially poke a little bit higher or a little bit lower. After this massive, volatile news in the overnight session, we have already had an outsized move in both directions, so we must be careful. I’m not insinuating it will be an inside day, but we do have to prepare for anything.
Gamma: We are still in a Negative Gamma regime. Our original gamma flip level has moved all the way up to 7825.00, and dealers are still hedging their positions to the downside and have insinuated they will keep a lid on things as long as we stay below last Wednesday’s high from FOMC. We also have a new ES-based gamma flip at 7684.00, the second flip level we’ll be monitoring for a squeeze. This can cause increased volatility and give us the potential to make money in both directions — just be aware that negative gamma means the dealers are hedging to the short side, so we have a downside bias, just like our plan proceeds.
Trend: Down on the Weekly, Daily, and 4-Hour timeframes, but we are starting to gain on the 1-Hour, showing us that buyers are starting to get their stuff together and could potentially move higher. The 1-Hour, as you know, is not my favorite, and I don’t use it for much other than understanding the small-timeframe trend — but if we’re going to start gaining, we have to do it somewhere, and the 1-Hour is the first place to do that.
🧠 Current Market Context
The TPO Breakout & A Very Peculiar Situation
We find ourselves in a very peculiar situation this morning. VIX is looking soft, and I do believe we can squeeze higher, but our process certainly tells us that we have not gained on the major timeframes that matter — the 4-Hour, Daily, and Weekly. We must be extremely careful. We’re going to use our 7623.00 spot as our significant above/below and as our guide for profitability. As long as we maintain above 7623.00, we could potentially squeeze all the way to the leg-end high at 7753.50.
