S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: The 7599 Gamma Flip & The Bulls’ Last Stand
A detailed ES, SPX & VIX plan for July 15th, breaking down the 7596.50 gamma flip confluence, the 7589.75 last-stand support, and the VIX 16.20 tiebreaker.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
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Morning everyone. Today is Wednesday, July 15th, and yesterday was one of the most impressive days we have ever had in the Inner Circle. We hit a brand new milestone and did over $100,000 in profits collectively as a team. Congratulations to all of you who took advantage of that amazing long from 7555.25 all the way back to 7600 — it was a glorious long, and we rode it in the Inner Circle in a completely pre-planned fashion. That is trade plan perfection, and it reaffirms what we say every single morning: being patient and waiting for the proper setup will always pay dividends. Following the plan with Team VICI is truly the way to success. I have also included a snippet of the post where you can see members’ profits — these people deserve recognition and commendation. Congratulations to all who publicly posted, I am proud of you all.
Coming into this morning, price opened up in the overnight session and popped all the way up into yesterday’s high, essentially playing it to the tick without exceeding it, and got sent right back lower into our 7596 area, which we are currently holding. Even though we had an amazing pop yesterday, we have continued to drift sideways, and all of these pops and drops continue to wipe our support out from underneath us — leaving us in a very fragile state. If the Bulls cannot continue their upside trajectory, there are only two areas left where we could potentially look to buy to keep this price propped up.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: We have Red Tag news again this morning with Core PPI month-over-month and PPI month-over-month at 8:30 a.m. These are significant Red Tag events and they are guaranteed to cause a shake. We also have Fed Chairman Warsh again after the open at 10:00 a.m. — put that on your calendar, because we do not know what will be said or what kind of moves the algorithms will give us. Be prepared for volatility around 10:00 a.m. as this is also notated as a Red Tag event. On top of that we have another geopolitical headline as the United States has begun bombing Iran once again — big surprise — and there will be fresh waves of strikes as the conflict increases.
Volume: Relative Volume is at -25%, which is pretty standard coming into a big Red Tag news event. It means market participants are simply not playing until after the announcement. I would assume this negative relative volume will more than likely baseline out or turn positive after the Red Tag news, and I do believe we can still expect a full 41 points in our range today.
Range: Expected range of 72 points. We have already moved 30.5 points, leaving us approximately 41 points left in the tank above or below the overnight highs or lows. We have sat in an extremely tight overnight range of only 30.5 points, which means we can expect a pretty solid move today.
Gamma: Very interesting turn of events — the gamma flip level has moved below us at 7595, directly at the price point we are sitting on right now at 7597, essentially putting us back in Positive Gamma territory. That flip level now aligns perfectly with our massive Daily at 7596.50 and our Weekly at 7599.25. This once again confirms just how important this level is, and now we have the options dealers hedging it right at our current price. This is guaranteed to cause a stir.
Trend: Bullish lean above 7599.25. We do continue to stay slightly suppressed underneath this level right now, but above 7599.25 we very much stay bullish. Below 7596.50 / 7599.25, this market is fragile and the Bulls are in a difficult position.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Fragile Repositioning & The Stacked 7599 Wall
ES is still in a difficult position. We continued to grind higher in the overnight session but have once again retreated back below our 7599.25, putting us right on top of the gamma flip level at 7595. Our big major above/below level for the day is the Daily at 7596.50, which is also located with that gamma flip at 7595 and our Weekly at 7599.25. The repositioning of the gamma flip level lower into our current price shows us the fragility and the importance of this level to stay above or below. The options market is now giving us the ability to pop and have a negative or positive gamma day for a change. This is a massive zone to monitor, and it is a level that is just extremely stacked — I cannot emphasize that enough.
