S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: The 7573 Ceiling, The 7527 Pivot & The 7492 Floor
A detailed ES & VIX plan for July 1st, breaking down the 7573.25 massive ceiling, the 7527.00 midpoint pivot, and the 7492.50 floor where everything goes bad.
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Morning everyone. Today is Wednesday, July 1st — the first of the month — and we come off another awesome day in the trade plan. Yesterday, 7492.50 held and sent us directly into our 7527.00, which was the true determining factor for whether we’d push to the leg-end high. They pushed right into our 7540 / 7542 area, got a very healthy reaction and pullback straight from the trade plan, only to propel us all the way up into the 7568.00 prime short we’ve talked about all week. It played to the tick and brought us right down into the significant 4-Hour at 7510.75 for an amazing 58-point short. Nothing but pure trade-plan perfection — congratulations to everyone who took advantage on a sketchy, last-day-of-the-month tape. The plan played true, and we continue to move into our highest untested target.
As we come into today, we find ourselves in a very peculiar position that leaves us with a little uncertainty, so we’ll walk through both bullish and bearish scenarios to figure out exactly what to play.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: This is our first Red Tag day in a while, with events both pre-market and after the open. At 8:15 a.m. we have Non-farm Employment Change (non-Red-Tag); at 9:00 a.m., Fed Chair Warsh speaks (directly pre-market); at 10:00 a.m. we have ISM Manufacturing PMI (Red Tag), followed by ISM Manufacturing Prices; and President Trump speaks at 3:15 p.m. Expect volatility around each of these.
Volume: Relative Volume is -13%, but given the Red Tag news, I’d treat that as baseline and NOT subtract it from our expected move. Look for roughly 50 points a day above or below the overnight high or low.
Range: Expected range of 92.75 points this morning. We’ve moved 40.25 points in the overnight session, leaving approximately 52.5 points above or below the overnight high or low — plenty of opportunity.
Gamma: We still have Negative Gamma at our backs, with dealers having moved the flip all the way up to 7650 — that’s the strike where everything changes. Dealers are hedging to the downside, which is sure to create more volatility, especially with it landing in line with the Red Tag news. Expect money to potentially be made both ways.
Trend: We are still down on the Daily — our main leg down sits at 7573.25 — but we’ve started to gain on the 4-Hour and 1-Hour as buyers try to accept this upper area overnight. The high time frame rules, so I default to the Daily, which keeps me leaning short into resistance until 7573.25 is taken.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Red-Tag Gauntlet at the 7573 Ceiling
We come in at a peculiar, high-stakes spot. Yesterday we held 7492.50 with perfection and launched all the way up into the 7568.00 4-Hour leg down — the leg from Monday, June 22 — which played to the tick for a 58-point short, but we ultimately barely missed the Daily leg at 7573.25. That matters enormously, because SPX played its twin level (7501.24) almost exactly. So here’s the framework for today: 7573.25 is the massive ceiling that determines whether we push higher or smack lower; 7527.00 is our midpoint pivot; and 7492.50 is the floor — below it, everything goes bad, and it goes bad fast. We’re still down on the Daily and drifting higher in the overnights, which tells us buyers are trying to accept this area. If buyers push above 7573.25 and the 7568.00 4-Hour, we’ll try to make new all-time highs. If instead we reject and continue the downside momentum from 7568.00 and 7573.25, we could have a massive down day, make new lows on last Thursday and Friday, and ultimately test the leg-end low below 7264.00.
