S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Surfing All-Time Highs & The Buy-The-Dip into FOMC
A detailed ES & VIX plan for June 16th, breaking down the 7640.50 all-time-high trigger, the 7596.25 favorite buy, and the VIX 16.20 midpoint pivot.
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🔄 Rollover Notice: I have officially rolled over and am now on the U (September) contract. This put us up significantly yesterday, into all-time high territory. Please note that all ES levels in today’s plan are on the new rollover contract.
Morning everyone. Today is Tuesday, June 16th. Coming into the morning, we find ourselves balancing sideways in an extremely tight range — only 22 points in the overnight session as we drift at all-time highs on the new contract. We are coming right off of rollover, and this is a big one: yesterday’s move was astronomical. We were up over 135 points on the old contract, and on the new rollover contract we found ourselves up over 200 points including the roll — putting us right back into all-time high territory off the back of the Iran peace treaty deal.
As we sit up here, we are going to need to digest this massive move in a back-and-forth fashion. We have flipped into Positive Gamma with the gamma flip level all the way down at 7500.00, well underneath our structure — which means any dip feeds the buy-the-dip thesis, and we are looking for longs. As they accept value, we either continue up to fill our bullish imbalance target at 7787.50 or come back lower to test some of the inefficiencies left during rollover. That is yet to be decided, but the lean is up.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news to speak of today. We do, however, have FOMC tomorrow with our new Fed chair Walsh — a roughly 90% chance they will not raise rates, but the market is essentially waiting on that announcement as it digests yesterday’s massive push. With a brand-new Fed chair, this is a relatively volatile moment, as participants do not yet know how he moves or reacts.
Volume: Relative Volume is showing a deeply negative reading of roughly -47% to -48% on the new contract. I am not taking this number seriously — we are directly in the middle of rollover, with volume split between the old and new contracts, which always distorts the read. Take it with a grain of salt.
Range: Expected range of 122 points today, leaving approximately 100 points above or below the overnight high or low. With only a 22-point overnight range and rollover distortion, I am not certain this range gets filled — I have a strong reason to believe it will not, and that we continue to distribute sideways.
Gamma: We have flipped into Positive Gamma territory, with the flip level at 7500.00 sitting well beneath our structure. This supports the buy-the-dip thesis — dips should be bought as long as we hold above that flip.
Trend: Bullish lean. We are clearly back up on all timeframes and surfing all-time highs in the futures, supported by positive gamma. The path of least resistance is up.
🧠 Current Market Context
Digesting the Massive Move at All-Time Highs
ES is something unbelievable right now. I had no idea the new rollover contract had taken us into all-time highs until I rolled over last night — we were still significantly far away on the previous month’s contract and not there yet on SPX. Because of that, we have to assume we continue to drift higher into all-time high territory as SPX plays catch-up. We are carrying a massive bullish imbalance that we talked about a couple of weeks ago, taking us all the way up to 7787.50 — more than likely a real target as we traverse these highs. With positive gamma beneath us and price surfing the highs, everything we do from here is looking for a long until we break the 7577.50 4-Hour.
Today is going to be a slow and potentially tricky day. The tight overnight range tells me we will eventually break out of it one way or another, but with the market digesting yesterday’s news and rollover simultaneously — and most participants waiting on FOMC tomorrow — I expect continued sideways distribution as we accept value and clean up some inefficiencies. Be patient, look for the buy-the-dip moment, and aim for one or two high-probability trades rather than forcing it.
