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Morning everyone. Today is Thursday, October 22nd, and we come off another unreal day in the trade plan — absolute perfection. We called the 7753.50 Daily as our massive midpoint pivot. Price swept the overnight lows, and our actionable plan led subscribers to huge profits as price reclaimed the overnight low and squeezed well over 65 points, propelling us well above the 7800 area during the cash session and leaving our subscribers filled fat with points. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of this incredible day — it was an absolutely unbelievable display of trade plan amazingness.
As we come into the morning, we are down 77 points at the time of this writing, as yesterday’s squeeze once again accomplished absolutely nothing. We have seen this many times before. Our process continues to keep us pointed down on all timeframes, so squeezes become extremely violent as buyers keep trying to prop this market up for their benefit. But our process continues to play true in the long run, because our analysis is based on the high timeframe — and once again, the high timeframe proves to be the guiding light.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No major Red Tag news, but we do have Unemployment Claims at 8:30 a.m., which is sure to cause a shake. We also have some geopolitical things on the horizon.
Volume: Relative Volume is elevated at +51%. Given our increased relative volume calculation, we are expecting approximately 40 points above or below the overnight highs or lows.
Range: Expected range of 87.5 points, and we have already moved 88.5 points — already exceeding our expected range for the day, which is pretty incredible.
Gamma: We are still in Negative Gamma territory, and our gamma flip continues to move higher and higher as dealers keep positioning themselves short on this market. That can give us increased volatility and outsized ranges — exciting, because it leaves us plenty of opportunity. But with increased volatility and ranges also come outsized gains or losses, so size appropriately, especially this morning, as it looks like we could be primed for a move.
Trend: Down on all timeframes — Weekly, Daily, 4-Hour, and 1-Hour — which is clearly evident from last night’s move down. We will continue to maintain that composure while monitoring our significant pivots.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Failed 7803.50 Four-Hour Gain & The Cascade Back to the Lows
Once again, we had some huge earnings yesterday, with Meta and some banks reporting after the close. That was clearly positioned for during the cash session on the S&P 500, only to fail in the overnight session and leave us well underneath our significant support. We are still moving down as we originally anticipated from the start of the week, and buyers have failed to gain on the 4-Hour. They had every opportunity to close above 7803.50 yesterday and could not get the job done. That failure to close above this level was a huge momentum shift for us, sending price cascading much lower. Once again, price has failed to gain support and has no choice but to look for new lows in search of buyers.
