S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Sideways Containment & The 6832.50 Progression Pivot
A detailed ES & VIX plan for April 9th, breaking down the 6857.25 monthly ceiling, the 6787.75 daily support anchor, and the VIX 20.78 above/below barometer.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Thursday, April 9th, and we come off another incredible day with the trade plans. We were able to call pretty much every long on the way down — the 6815.25 four-hour played for thirteen points, the 6806.25 four-hour played for twelve points, and then once again, the Daily at the low of the day at 6787.75 ended up playing for fifty points. All while still remaining with a slightly downside lean as long as we were below the 6832.50 four-hour, which was our major above/below pivot yesterday. Yesterday was an incredible day for subscribers as many of you put up huge money. In a sea of turmoil and chaos, S&P Edge subscribers remained on top — congratulations to all those who took advantage of such incredible price action.
As we come into the day this morning, we have essentially drifted back and forth all night inside yesterday’s range in a very tight fashion as the market remains undecided on direction amid geopolitical news and massive Red Tag headlines. Yesterday, President Trump gave Iran a two-week extension on the ceasefire, which caused what we now know as the “taco trade” — a massive rally as the markets eased in anticipation. However, price has not moved out of this range even in the overnight session. It looks as if we could again open inside yesterday’s range — but this will not stand. The chances of us staying inside yesterday’s range and the overnight range are extremely thin. We should be looking for a push outside of yesterday’s range, one direction or the other, at some point today.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: Red Tag morning. We have Core PCE and Final GDP numbers all before the bell at 8:30 AM. Continue to monitor for any geopolitical developments that could create intraday shakes.
Volume: Relative Volume is dramatically lower today at -37.8%. This means we could have a somewhat muted range on our potential, reducing our above/below calculation to approximately 50 points above or below the overnight high or low. Be very convinced of your trades today — low volume means slow, grinding moves.
Range: Expected range of 107.5 points. We have only moved 30 points in the overnight session, leaving approximately 80 points above or below the overnight high or low. However, with low relative volume, that effective number is closer to 50 points.
Gamma: We remain contained between the 50-day moving average at 6782 and the 100-day moving average at 6830.50, which almost perfectly marked the low and the high of yesterday. Dealers continue to hedge in this environment, and anything can happen inside this compression.
Trend: Mixed. We are above the Daily at 6787.75, which gives us a slight upside lean on the intraday. However, from a high-timeframe perspective, we remain below the Weekly at 6859.00 and the Monthly at 6857.25 — suppressed on the higher timeframes. We are distributing in a sideways fashion as price determines its next move.
🧠 Current Market Context
Sideways Distribution & Moving Average Compression
We are sitting inside of a massive range after a huge push up. The Daily at 6787.75 was played from the bottom yesterday for a fifty-point run, and since then we have been moving sideways — maintaining this area, either accepting value or distributing. Regardless of which one it is, we are testing everything inside this range, and so we are having to use tested significant four-hour and daily levels to understand our progression as we continue to chop sideways.
