SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
📬 IMPORTANT — Check Your Spam Folder! To make sure you never miss a morning trade plan, please whitelist rbailey@vicitradingsolutions.com and info@vicitradingsolutions.com in your email client. Drag any VICI email out of Spam and into your Primary inbox so these land where they belong every single morning.
🎓 THIS THURSDAY at 7:00 p.m. — “How to Trade the Trade Plan” Webinar. If you have not attended one of these yet, this is the session that shows you how to get the absolute most out of these plans every morning. Make sure you sign up: https://pages.vicitradingsolutions.com/tradetheplan — and here’s the kicker: all registrants will be entered in the queue to win one of two free prop firm evals. Don’t miss it.
📈 Get the SPX Morning Brief — Free. Delivered to your inbox at 5:40 a.m. EST every trading day. Sign up here: https://pages.vicitradingsolutions.com/spx-edge
Morning everyone. Today is Tuesday, August 25th, and we come off another day of slow summertime trading. Yesterday led to a massive balance day that essentially held Thursday’s lows after moving down from Friday’s range by about 10 points. It recovered this morning to find ourselves directly above Friday’s range coming into the day.
Today’s trade plan will dovetail perfectly with the Weekend Review Special Edition I did yesterday at 4:00 p.m. at the close of the post-market breakdown, where we discussed many of the high time frame scenarios. Today’s plan will focus on the closer, more recent price action so that you can capitalize on making today a profitable day.
We held Thursday’s low on Monday after sweeping the lows, only to propel us higher and leave us right in a position that is very important for us to break out above or below today. We continue to bump our head on the 7714.25 Daily, and this will be an important pivot for us to monitor for more up or down — this is our midpoint pivot this morning.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news to speak of. We only have Consumer Confidence at 10:00 a.m. this morning, after the market has opened.
Volume: We have an increased Relative Volume of 29%. When relative volume is taken into account, that leaves us approximately 22.5 points above or below the overnight highs or lows.
Range: Expected range of 60.25 points. We have already moved 57.75 points this morning, meaning we have essentially met our expected range before the bell — relative volume is what gives us any remaining runway.
Gamma: We are still in Negative Gamma territory. Our gamma flip level is at 7775, which is above us. This means dealers are hedging to the short side, opening up some range expansion and volatility for us, and telling us money can be made in both directions.
Trend: Downside lean. We are still pointed down on all time frames except for the Weekly, which means we are pointed down on the Daily, the 4-Hour, and the 1-Hour. We are still looking for more rotations to the downside.
🧠 Current Market Context
Seven Red Days, The Weekly Gap & The Targets Below
We still have the weekly gap below us all the way down to 7640, and the major, massive weekly support that we’ve been targeting for quite some time located at 7622.50 and 7599.25. These areas are of massive importance and they are directly below us. We have no reason to believe that we can’t come down and touch those areas, so for now we continue to maintain our short-side bias until we can get into them.
So we have two Weeklies — one at 7622.50 and the other at 7599.25 — both of which are major, and in my opinion both are real targets. Especially with the gap fill directly below us and not too far from here, it certainly seems like not only the gap fill but these Weeklies could be appropriate targets that we simply have not drifted to yet.
Also as we come into the morning, we have a History Says post guiding us technically toward a potential small upside pop, which seems to already have been met this morning. The post came out at the bell yesterday and claimed we could move up approximately half a percent today — and we’re off to a good start, as at the time of this writing we are up 35.5 points. That was a nice little clue on what was possible.
