S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Rollover Day & The 6721 Make or Break Pivot
A detailed ES & VIX plan for March 17th, breaking down the ES M6 contract rollover, the 6721.50 weekly momentum pivot, and the VIX 23.43 tailwind trigger.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Morning everyone. Today is Tuesday, March 17th, and welcome to the day of another incredible trade plan. As we called the squeeze on both Thursday and Friday in the weekend review, prepping all of our subscribers for a potential pop — our data had harvested some serious bullish signals saying that SPX was oversold. Yesterday that was proven true as we popped over 100 points, ending the day up over one percent. It was a great day for Substack subscribers, and I appreciate everyone reaching out and attending the post-market breakdown and ringing the bell. Your hard work paid off.
Now as we come into the morning, we have officially rolled over into the M6 contract. We are now trading ES M6 (June), moving away from the March contract. This is the first day of rollover for me, and TradingView has rolled over as well — so I decided to roll over to make sure everyone has proper trade plan levels. As we come into the day, we’ve had a slightly stagnant session as we’ve been basing back and forth in the overnight, moving approximately 36.75 points. We are currently holding directly above support, however we are below resistance as well, which will be a major make it or break it for us today. Today is going to be a determining factor of which direction we could potentially traverse, as we have two significant bull/bear lines above and below us.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: No Red Tag news events before the bell. However, at 10:00 AM we have Pending Home Sales. Even though this is not a Red Tag event, I would certainly set your watch for this as it tends to get a shake.
Volume: Relative Volume is currently unreliable as we still have volume split between the March and June contracts. We will not be referencing this metric today. Once the majority of participants have rolled over by end of this week, things will be back to normal.
Range: Expected range of approximately 102.5 points. We have currently moved 36.75 points in the overnight session, leaving us approximately 70 points left in the tank above or below the overnight high.
Gamma: There will be no GEX levels today as the options analyzer needs recalibration for the contract rollover. We will have those levels again tomorrow. Use the volatility levels as they measure approximate moves based on implied volatility — they make for great targets, and the fourth deviation makes for a great reversal area if price approaches.
Trend: Downside lean technically remains as long as we are below 6761.75, however yesterday’s 100+ point pop has brought some life into the bulls. We are currently sitting inside a two-week balance area, filling in the low volume node. Without gaining on the higher timeframes, we maintain our downside process — but the conditions are ripe for continuation higher if key pivots break.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Two-Week Balance & The Contract Rollover
We are currently sitting directly in the middle of last week’s value area, filling in the low volume node inside what is technically a two-week balance area. When we sit inside these massive balance areas, it becomes difficult to pick a direction as price drifts back and forth testing the highest untested, moving to the lowest untested. Price appears to pointed to more upside but anything can happen today — be prepared for both directions.
The contract rollover adds a layer of complexity. Things could get a little tricky today, so I urge everyone to exercise discretion and wait for proper setups as things will be a little funky until the end of this week when everyone has rolled over. The beginning of next week things will be back to normal. However, just be careful today as things do get a little sketchy around rollover.
