S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: Red Tag Friday & The Precarious Leg Retest
A detailed ES & VIX plan for March 13th, breaking down the triple red tag news volatility, the 6702.50 four-hour momentum pivot, and the VIX 24.70 monthly midpoint barometer.
SCHEDULED NEWS
OPTIONS VOLITILITY LEVELS
Good morning everyone. Today is Friday, March 13th, and we come off another incredible day in the trade plans. As usual, we called 6761 as our big above/below pivot, and it indeed played exactly as that — being the high of the day. We moved below our 6749.75 4-Hour, traveling all the way lower well past our 6681.50 Daily bottom target. We were also able to play the suppression below our major support in the overnight session, with the Daily at 6723.50 and the Weekly at 6716. It ended up being a fabulous day for trade plan subscribers as we stuck to the levels and printed some cash. Congratulations to all those who took advantage of this.
As we come into the day, we find ourselves in a precarious position. We are still traversing to the downside, unable to gain on any timeframe. However, we have smacked from a very important spot overnight — retesting our significant Tested Daily at 6633.25, the Tested Weekly at 6627, and the 200-day moving average at 6633.75. This was a massive retest, and we’ve popped well over 70 points off the lows. As referenced in the data above, we have an amazing data point that came up yesterday on the scan that suggests a potential upside move. However, we don’t know exactly what events will take place for this to happen — we could very much sweep the leg low before it occurs, or not. This is where sticking to the plan and playing the levels comes into play. So let’s get into it.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: This is a massive Red Tag day. Pre-market we have Core PCE and Preliminary GDP at 8:30 AM, and after the market opens we have JOLTS Job Openings at 10 AM. Three Red Tag events — be prepared for anything as today is going to be a big day for volatility.
Volume: Relative Volume is at -14%, but this could change significantly once the Red Tag news events hit. Do not assume volume will stay suppressed.
Range: Expected range of 120 points. We’ve moved a total of 71 points overnight, leaving us approximately 50 points above or below the overnight high or low.
Gamma: We are still firmly in Negative Gamma territory. VIX remains elevated and currently cascading down from 28.41 toward the 24.70 Monthly. Dealers continue to hedge to the downside, and anything can happen in this environment.
Trend: Downside lean remains as we have not gained on the Weekly, Daily, or 4-Hour timeframe. However, we are currently retesting the leg with three red weeks in a row and three red days in a row. We are in massive oversold territory, and the data suggests a potential for relief. The process says lower, but the conditions say be prepared for a potential inflection.
🧠 Current Market Context
The Leg Retest & The Potential Inflection Point
We find ourselves in a very precarious position this morning. We are still traversing to the downside, unable to gain on any timeframe — and yet we have smacked from one of the most important spots on the chart. Last night in the overnight session, we retested our significant Tested Daily at 6633.25, the Tested Weekly at 6627, and the 200-day moving average at 6633.75. This was a massive retest, and we’ve since popped well over 70 points off the lows. We also have the data point from above that leads to a potential upside move — a very high probability setup historically. However, we don’t know how the price action will unfold. We could sweep the leg low before this happens, or the inflection could start from right here.
