S&P 500 Daily Trade Plan: PPI Volatility, Positive Gamma & The 7420 Buy Zone
A detailed ES & VIX plan for May 13th, breaking down the 7420.50 high-conviction buy zone, the 7448.00 - 7452.00 all-time-high breakout area, and the 17.44 - 17.48 VIX reaction floor.
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Morning everyone. Today is Wednesday, May 13th, and once again we come off a ridiculous day in the trade plan. We called 7420.00 as our morning high, which was also our gamma flip level and significant 4-Hour pivot. That level played beautifully for a 60-point short, only to come down and close below 7399.25 on the 1-Hour in the early morning session, giving us the confluence to begin shorting and take the market all the way to the lows.
Then, as if the morning session was not enough, our leg-end buy at 7364.50 played almost to the tick with the previous weekly point of control around 7364.00, taking the indices back up well over 70 points during the cash session and nearly 90 points when combining the cash session and overnight move. This is a level and call we had been talking about since Sunday, and it finally played out in full. That was an amazing display of the process and how patience can truly pay. Trades like that are the type you only need once a week, and they can make your month.
Congratulations to everyone who took advantage of that incredible trade. It was nothing short of a showstopper. As we come into this morning, ES is once again sitting near all-time highs, less than 13 points away from making a new all-time high after nearly tagging it in Globex. We held the leg-end low, we have not lost on any timeframe, dealers are hedging to the upside, and VIX is suppressed. Right now, our job is to continue looking for levels to buy because this market remains in a buy-the-dip regime.
A Note on Today’s Market:
News: We have serious Red Tag news at 8:30 AM Eastern with Core PPI month over month, and we also have a Fed chair nomination vote. That is a rare market event, and we need to pay attention to when it hits because it can create volatility and shake.
Volume: Relative Volume is very low at negative 28%, which gives us a muted potential range for the day. Low volume inside Positive Gamma can create a slow, grindy uptrend.
Range: Expected range is 74 points. We have already moved 44 points in the overnight session, leaving approximately 30 points left in the tank above or below the overnight high or low. With Relative Volume factored in, the muted range expectation is closer to 25 points above or below the overnight high or low.
Gamma: The gamma flip has moved back below current structure to 7350.00, putting us back in Positive Gamma. Dealers are hedging to the upside, volatility can decrease, and price can continue grinding higher into potential all-time-high price discovery.
Trend: We have not lost on any major timeframe. The leg-end low held, the market is less than 13 points from a new all-time high, and the plan remains buy the dip until proven otherwise.
🧠 Current Market Context
Positive Gamma, Near All-Time Highs & The 7420 Support Test
After yesterday’s massive rally, the gamma flip moved back down to 7350.00, which tells us dealers are once again hedging to the upside. That puts us in a supportive Positive Gamma environment where volatility can compress and price can continue to push higher. With Relative Volume down around negative 28%, the most likely character of the market, if nothing changes, is a slow and grindy push higher rather than a violent directional explosion.
